Emergency agency expects the worst

The federal government is expecting the Y2K computer bug to cause more than just a few minor inconveniences, according to training materials for emergency managers.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has been conducting regional Y2K workshops for federal agency officials who will be dealing with Y2K-related problems.

Under “Planning Assumptions,” the document details conditions emergency managers are expected to encounter during the period now called “Day One” by federal officials — Dec. 28 through Jan. 3.

“Most federal/state mission critical emergency response systems will be Y2K compliant,” the document states. Since not all mission critical systems will be compliant, and because other less critical systems have not been repaired, the ability for emergency staff to respond to Y2K disruptions could be seriously impaired.

Those attending any of the 10 workshops were told that repairs could be made as soon as problems became known “on the fly.”

“Y2K disruptions, like natural disasters, may temporarily interfere with normal life,” the FEMA training document warned, a copy of which was obtained by WorldNetDaily. “Individuals should maintain emergency supplies for a reasonable period consistent with normal preparedness measures.”

FEMA has been firmly warning federal, state and local emergency planners that there will be so many simultaneous Y2K problems throughout the country that the federal government cannot be expected to assist with them all. The maximum number of Y2K disruptions that FEMA can handle at once has been set as 56, according to the training materials.

“The federal government may experience temporary shortages of critical response resources, leading to resource allocation and adjudication among states,” the document states. “Resource allocation” is a form of rationing of available resources, according to one source who attended the training. “Adjudication” is a form of triage in which each reported Y2K disruption will be judged and prioritized.

The documents also warn agencies not to plan on help from the military.

“Certain DoD (Department of Defense) assets may not be available for response to domestic Y2K disruptions,” the training documents warn. That is consistent with earlier statements by John Hamre, deputy secretary of Defense. Hamre has ordered military commanders to only respond to requests for help from civil agencies if they involve immediate threats to life and damage to property.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is so concerned that federal resources may be stretched to the limit that it has asked state and local civil agencies to use all their resources before they come to FEMA for help with Y2K emergencies.

“Immediate response to Y2K consequences should be addressed by local and state jurisdictions prior to requesting federal assistance,” according to FEMA.

A presidential ’emergency’ — rather than ‘major disaster’ declaration will be made if Y2K disruptions exceed state/local response resources.

“Except in life-saving situations, federal response resources may not be deployed until an initial nationwide needs analysis has been conducted,” the emergency planners were told at the training session.

The national FEMA emergency support team will be activated on full level one alert status from Dec. 28 through Jan. 4, according to the training documents. The team will be supported by the 10 FEMA regional operations centers, the FEMA liaison in each state, and a special network of emergency communications systems.

The documents state that the FEMA emergency support team will be prepared to handle a “potential of 56 declaration requests” involving that many simultaneous Y2K disruptions in different locations throughout the country.

When the president declares a national emergency, the FEMA state liaisons will be elevated to the position of deputy federal coordinating officer, according to the plans given at the training sessions.

In the event normal telephone communications fail, FEMA has prepared a number of alternative communications systems. These systems include:

• FEMA Switched Network
• Fixed/mobile KuBand satellite systems
• National Warning System
• American Mobile Satellite Corporation SkyCell voice, data, and radio dispatch service
• FEMA National Radio System
• Land Mobile Radio Systems
• Low Earth Orbit satellite data service
• SHAred RESources (SHARES) HF radio program

FEMA has bought and paid for several satellite phones for every state emergency operations center. The phones will operate over the American Mobile Satellite system and will be used if normal telephone systems fail. FEMA will pay for the use of the phones through the end of March, after which the equipment will be returned, according to the instructions given out at the training meeting.

The cost of response to Y2K disruptions will be shared 75 percent federal and 25 percent local, which is the same formula the government uses for all disasters in which FEMA becomes involved. FEMA claims it is prepared to process Y2K-related requests on an expedited basis.

State governors may request the declaration of an emergency in their states under specific guidelines FEMA has issued to each state. The determination of the need for an emergency declaration on a state level will be evaluated based on the “threat to life, health, or safety,” according to the training documents. Special populations, critical facilities and large-scale disruptions of normal community functions will also be a part of the decision.

The press will not be permitted in the President’s Council on the Year 2000 Conversion Information Communication Center, where all Y2K federal response will be coordinated. A public affairs officer will “issue news releases and background information as appropriate,” according to the documents.

FEMA makes it clear in its training documents that it will “not provide funding to fix computers.” The types of help FEMA plans to provide include:

• Food, water, medicine, and emergency assistance
• Emergency communications, emergency access, and emergency public transportation
• Shelters, emergency care, and temporary housing
• Debris removal; emergency repairs/demolition
• Search and rescue
• Health and safety hazard removal

The FEMA emergency support team will issue an initial nationwide needs analysis between 12 and 18 hours after the start of the New Year, the documents state.