Likelihood of ‘best-case scenario’

If you’ve spent any time at all living in the “real world” (you know
what I mean: marriage, career, child-rearing, coaching a soccer team,
preparing Thanksgiving dinner, etc.), then you know that our best-laid
plans often get blown to bits right off the bat.

Or as I once heard a pastor say, “If you want to hear God laugh, just
tell Him your plans.”

For example, over the years I’ve done a number of home improvement
projects. Before doing any actual construction work, I plan out exactly
how the project will proceed. I make a list of all the materials I need
and how much time it will take. No matter how conservative my estimates,
no matter how much I try to anticipate every possible problem that could
occur, when I finally start doing the work, the project always takes
twice as much time and costs twice as much money.

I think most people can relate. Whether home improvement projects or
the common, everyday situations in the workplace, our plans usually end
up requiring more time and effort than we originally thought.

Over the years I’ve also done quite a bit of software testing and
product analysis for many computer firms. Take my word for it, when it
comes to complex computer software, if the track record to complete a
project was only twice the time and cost, the entire technology
industry would be thrilled.

Computer software projects, as with most aspects of modern life,
hardly ever follow the best-case scenario.

I raise this issue because virtually all of the predictions,
projections, and prognostications we hear from government and business
leaders about the Y2K problem are best-case scenarios. And as a result,
the vast majority of American citizens are basing their personal
preparation plans (or lack of plans) on these best-case
scenarios.

We are being told that Y2K-related disruptions — if any — will be
minor and brief. So minor and brief, in fact, that no more than three
days worth of food, water, and flashlight batteries will be needed.

But these overly optimistic forecasts are based on the following
assumptions:

• The basic infrastructure will surely work smoothly. If
  one or more of the following industries experience severe disruptions,
  even temporarily, we’re in big trouble: electrical power, water and
  sewer service, telecommunications, oil and gas, banking, and
  transportation. Every single one of these basic infrastructure
  industries must operate smoothly during the century rollover period or
  else the best-case scenario cannot possibly happen.

• Hastily-installed and partially-tested computer systems will
  work fine. Trying to keep track of the number of Y2K repair projects
  that have missed key deadlines is like trying to keep track of Bill
  Clinton’s fibs; there are just too many. Many Y2K-compliant computer
  systems are being hastily-installed with little or no testing.
  Technically, the installation of a new system is not late until it
  misses the final deadline (which is why we keep hearing, “We expect to
  be 100 percent compliant by the end of the year!”), but when Jan. 1
  arrives these systems must put up or shut up. Common sense tells us that
  many of these partially-tested systems will indeed shut up.

• Manual contingency plans will operate just as efficiently as
  automated systems. Many organizations assume that if computer
  systems malfunction in January, they can run their businesses manually
  — just like they did a couple of decades ago. But there is a good
  reason companies became computerized in the first place: it’s much more
  effective and efficient. In other words, you can get a lot more done a
  lot faster with a lot less workers. Going back to doing business with
  pencils and paper and calculators will slow things down drastically. In
  many firms (if not most), it can’t be done at all. Also, most firms no
  longer have the proper tools or the trained personnel who remember how
  to do it. If Y2K problems shut down a business system, most employees
  will be staring at their blank screens without a clue of what to do
  next.

• Suppliers and third-party vendors will be as reliable as
  always. This could be the biggest problem of all. Many organizations
  are focusing all their energies on upgrading their internal computer
  systems. Most don’t have time to check the status of their critical
  third-party vendors. They are assuming their suppliers will deliver in
  the year 2000 with the same on-time reliability as in 1999. This could
  prove to be a costly error in judgement. Our fast-paced, high-tech
  economy is a network of systems and a system of networks. Large
  corporations have tens of thousands of key vendors, with supply chains
  extending around the globe. A few broken links in this vast,
  just-in-time chain could wreak havoc on economic activity.

Each of these assumptions must come true for the best-case
scenario of Y2K to occur. I would suggest it is very unlikely that these
assumptions are valid.

As I’ve written many times, the Year 2000 Computer Problem is a
risk-management issue. What are the risks that we face, and what
steps should we take to protect our loved ones?

It is impossible to calculate the precise odds of what will or will
not fail in January, since Y2K is an unprecedented event. But because it
is unprecedented, because we have no experience dealing with a
worldwide, simultaneous technological tremor, it would seem the odds are
rather slim the best case-scenario will happen.