Blinding the eye in the sky

If you had planned an opportunistic stroke-of-midnight sneak attack
on America, set to coincide with the Y2K changeover, you might have
prepared the way by planting a virus in America's early warning
computers. The virus itself would have been activated as the clock
advanced past midnight, GMT. Because of expected Y2K computer problems,
U.S. defense officials would be forced to assume a Y2K-related "glitch."

The United States early warning system consists of approximately
three launch detection (DSP) satellites and six radars for early warning
of a ballistic missile attack. The satellites relay their information to
ground stations located in Guam and Australia (Pinegap and Nurrungar).
Ground-station computers, operating at the uplink locations, are tasked to
unscramble the satellite feed. America's early warning radars are
located at Clear, Ala.; Thule, Greenland; and Fylingdales Moor, England.
The Perimeter Acquisition radar is at Grand Forks, N.D. Two additional
radars (called PAVE PAWS) watch for submarine launched missiles.

The actual mechanics of a surprise nuclear strike require that the
Russian side first neutralize the DSP satellites, then neutralize the
six early warning radars, then attack the Launch Control Centers (LCCs)
of America's missile command and the Extremely Low Frequency
communications system. (There is a 28-mile long antenna buried near Clam
Lake, Wis., which facilitates communications with submerged submarines).

The vulnerability of America's early warning system was outlined in
1990 by veteran CIA analyst Peter Vincent Pry. In his book, "Nuclear
Wars, Exchanges and Outcomes," Pry noted, "Destruction ... of a relative
handful of early warning assets -- the BMEWS and PAVE PAWS radars and
the satellite ground stations in Australia and Guam -- would in effect
leave the United States blind."

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The outright destruction of early warning assets can be described as
the "hard-kill" method of attack. But there is also a "soft-kill"
method. An attacker might use an electromagnetic pulse to fry enemy
electronics, knocking out radars and early warning computers. Another
soft-kill method would involve the neutralization of defense computers
by hacking into them, or by planting viruses. If the computers go down,
if the satellite information cannot be processed, the resulting
blindness could open up a window for a ballistic missile blitz that
could destroy America's strategic forces in 30 minutes.

This is the danger we live with every day. And this is the
opportunity which presents itself, month after month, to those Kremlin
leaders who wish to be rid of America once and for all.

America is fortunate that no opportunistic attack was attempted on
the changeover from 1999 to 2000. Despite the serious weakening of our
defenses by President Clinton, the United States remains quite strong.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff remain vigilant. In this context, only one
major Y2K glitch
occurred.

On New Year's Eve some of our spy satellites, controlled by the
National Reconnaissance Office, were neutralized by a computer
malfunction. According to Pentagon officials our DSP early warning
satellites were not affected. We still retained the ability to monitor
Russian missile launches throughout the Y2K changeover. According to
Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre the information cutoff was
nonetheless serious. Hamre said that the National Reconnaissance Office
was unable "to process information" from the system for "several hours."
In fact, the system will be operating "at less than our full peacetime
level of activity" for several days.

The Pentagon wisely declined to say which satellites were affected by
the mishap. They also declined to say whether the failure was
Y2K-related or caused by a virus.

The spy satellites of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO)
provide high-quality information on military movements in potentially
hostile countries. Perhaps the satellites' most important job is the
monitoring of Russian ballistic missile submarines. If the satellites
tasked to watch Russia's ports were to malfunction, and if the Russians
had a technique for fooling our satellites about the number of
submarines sitting in bunkers, it might be possible for them to put
large numbers of nuclear weapons to sea undetected. This is the only
real danger presented by the NRO satellite failure of last Friday night.

America's intelligence system is heavily satellite dependent. We are
not adept at infiltrating enemy countries with spies. Our reliance on
high technology systems rather than old-fashioned human intelligence
makes us vulnerable when computers or satellites fail.

Defending the United States with high-tech satellites requires a lot
of money. Despite the cost, we need to maintain a strong and
invulnerable early warning system. The truth is, our present
vulnerabilities -- vividly brought home by the New Year's Eve computer
failure at the NRO -- are partly due to budgetary cutbacks and financial
constraints. When the Republicans gained control of Congress some of us
hoped that the defense build-down in this country would be halted. But
Newt Gingrich declared himself a "cheap hawk," and the slide toward
unreadiness and weakness continued.

Throughout the last year the Russians have been engaged in a military
buildup. This buildup especially involves Russia's military industry,
which is being upgraded. According to official Russian sources, the
Russian economy grew by a fantastic 8 percent last year.

In addition to actual preparations for war, the Kremlin has created a
kind of war hysteria in Russia. Many observers think this was staged for
the Duma elections and the elevation of Vladimir Putin to the
presidency. Certainly the war card has been played to the domestic
advantage of Russia's hard-line secret police prime minister. But there
is more involved here than Russian domestic considerations.

On Tuesday, during a radio interview with the author of this column,
the House of Representative's top military advisor -- veteran CIA
analyst Peter Vincent Pry -- said that Russia's war hysteria was not
attributable to internal political considerations. He said that a
definite shift is taking place. It is a shift toward an increased
willingness on Russia's part to wage nuclear war. Pry's warning should
not be ignored. Russia's leaders have openly admitted that the nuclear
threshold has been lowered.

Some military experts tend to dismiss the Russian threat. But the
Russians have always been experts at hiding their true strength. With a
new class of road mobile ICBMs, camouflage and concealment assumes an
even greater importance.

How ready is Russia for a confrontation?

We learned from the Y2K rollover that Russia's preparations are more
long term. Some of us worried because Russia's more recent deployments
and mobilizations had deadlines of December 1999. But now we see that
these preparations may have been intermediate steps in a slower, more
gradual buildup of strength. We see, for example, that Russia may begin
selling platinum again -- that some of Russia's more sinister moves may
be reversed.

But why did the Russians hoard their platinum and other strategic
resources in the first place? Did they think that war was imminent?

In the coming weeks this column will watch to see if the Russians
actually reverse some of the more alarming steps taken last year. It may
take time to piece everything together, but key items should come into
focus. Perhaps the Pentagon will explain the cause of the failure of the
National Reconnaissance Office Computers and we'll know more about the
potential for sabotage against vital systems.

Was an attack contemplated by the Kremlin? Were viruses planted in
U.S. defense computers?

As Congress' top military advisor emphasized in Tuesday's radio
interview, the Russian leadership is unpredictable and brutal. At the
same time, the Russians have a history of logistical and technical
failures that often cause them to rethink their more aggressive plans.

This year the Pentagon will be asking for money to enhance our
defense. According to the Pentagon, we need to build new attack
submarines. We need to harden our early warning systems against new
types of attack. But most of all, we need to assure that our satellites
will not be blinded.

Americans should write to their representatives in Congress. We
should demand full funding for essential defense requirements. We should
not allow the erosion of our military power to continue.