Beijing softies
Several Air Force generals are so upset over recent Air Force-funded
China studies that they are thinking of canceling the service’s contract
with the Rand Corp., a think tank headquartered Santa Monica, Calif.
Rand’s Project Air Force does numerous studies worth millions of
dollars annually. We are told the Air Staff was particularly upset by
recent Rand reports by Michael Swaine, Rand’s resident China expert. Mr.
Swaine is a noted soft-liner on China with a reputation for playing down
the growing threat from China’s military modernization.
What ticked off the Air Force brass was a recent report coauthored by
Mr. Swaine called “Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy.” The report
echoes the pro-Beijing political line of many U.S. China specialists
that China will not pose a threat for 30 years.
That view is contrary to numerous classified studies showing China’s
military buildup is likely to emerge as a threat to U.S. interests in 15
years or sooner. “We paid a million bucks for Chinese propaganda,” one
general said of the report.
Defense sources told us that Mr. Swaine was summoned to the Air
Force’s Pacific headquarters in Hawaii and told bluntly that his reports
do not reflect any new research on China and are a “rehash” of other
work. Pacific Air Force has stopped sponsoring his work.
Mr. Swaine told us he was not criticized in Hawaii but in fact
“received a lot of very positive comments” about the study. He also
said the report does not dismiss the possibility of a U.S. military
confrontation with China over Taiwan before 2030.
One reason the Air Force was so upset with the report: the service is
thinking about creating an Air Expeditionary Force — a rapid response
team of fighters, bombers and support aircraft — that could be deployed
quickly in the Pacific region. Highlighting the growing threat of a
Chinese military attack on Taiwan, which could lead to U.S. intervention
in support of the island, will boost support for the new mobile force.
Saving Montenegro
NATO is busy at work planning an intervention in Montenegro should
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic attempt to oust the
Western-leaning president. Montenegro and Serbia are the only remaining
republics in Yugoslavia.
President Milo Djukanovic of Montenegro has raised the possibility of
bolting the two-state federation and declaring independence, setting up
another confrontation between NATO and Mr. Milosevic’s brutal armed
forces.
Sources say NATO officials are planning either an uncontested or a
forcible intervention, depending on Mr. Milosevic’s willingness to take
more punishment or acquiesce. A forced entry would involve drawing
airborne troops from the United States.
One possible glitch is the topography of the airport in Podgorica,
the capital. The only safe pullback route is the ocean.
Good mines
The United Nations remains a bastion of political opposition to land
mines, the cause espoused by the late Princess Diana. And most of the
U.N. member states, including many NATO allies, stand as vocal critics
of the United States for refusing to sign on to the 1997 treaty banning
landmines.
The world body now appears to be having second thoughts about the
utility of the weapons. U.N. headquarters in New York wants the Pentagon
to supply the shattered peacekeeping force in Sierra Leone with 1,200
anti-tank mines for protection against rampaging rebels.
Last week in the West African nation, the rebels captured some 500
Zambian, Kenyan and Indian peacekeepers and took control of 13 armored
personnel carriers (APCs), along with weapons and uniforms.
“The U.N. appears to be coming around to understand the importance we
attach to protecting our troops in the field with landmines,” said a
U.S. government official.
The U.N. peacekeeping force is made up of 8,900 troops, including 700
British paratroopers. Some former U.S. special forces soldiers also are
said to be operating in the country under contract as international
military consultants.
What do women want?
The Pentagon’s civilian advisory committee on military women recently
called on the Navy to begin sexually integrating submarines by putting
female officers on missile boats. That’s not all that’s coveted by the
36-member Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Services.
(DACOWITS)
Its draft report to the services makes other demands. Among them:
- Allow women to operate the Army’s Multiple Launch Rocket
System and to fly its special operations helicopters. - Attract more women to the Marine Corps.
- Put more bunks for women on Navy ships. Women sailors complain
they can’t get assigned to combat ships for lack of female berthing. - Do a better job of providing women’s uniforms. Female troops
complain of problems with “design, durability, fit, cost and
availability.” - A review of each service’s policy for discharging pregnant women
and any information on education programs that discuss men’s
responsibility for pregnancies.
DACOWITS also complimented the Army for “its recent progress in
promoting women into senior career-enhancing assignments.”
Intercepts
- In November 1995, as 20,000 U.S. troops prepared for
peacekeeping duty in Bosnia, Gen. Ronald Fogleman, the Air Force chief
of staff, had this prediction: - “What we really envision is we’ll go in, we’ll peak at a given
strength and then hopefully we won’t wait until the one-year point and
then everybody packs up on the 365th day,” Gen. Fogleman said. “We will
start pulling forces out as we see that we do not need them.” - Gen. Fogleman was repeating the Clinton administration’s promise
of a one-year stay. Today, nearly five years later, Gen. Fogleman is
retired and U.S. troops remain in Bosnia, with no end to the mission in
sight - Rep. Neil Abercrombie, Hawaii Democrat, walked back into the
House Armed Services Committee hearing room this week just as members
completed a vote on a Republican-sponsored amendment. - “Aye,” Mr. Abercrombie yelled. As fellow Democrats whispered
that he voted the wrong way, the congressman inquired, “Mr. Chairman,
can I ask what we’re voting on?” He then changed his vote to a “no.”
The amendment passed.
Bill Gertz can be reached at 202/636-3274 or by
e-mail.
Rowan Scarborough can be reached at 202/636-3208 or by
e-mail.
