Russian-Afghan war looms

Russia could launch a "preventive" military attack on fundamentalist
Moslem forces in Afghanistan, which are reported to be massing along the
border shared with several former Soviet republics, according to official
Russian sources.

Igor Ivanov, Russian foreign minister, stated that Russia could attack
bases of the Islamic fundamentalist group Taliban should there be a
"threat" to any of Russia's Central Asian allies. The Taliban movement
controls most of Afghanistan.

The report was carried by the Voice of Russia World Service, the
official broadcasting service of the Russian government.

Ivanov made his remarks in the context of a new treaty signed this
week that allows for "preventive strikes if there is aggression or the
possibility of aggression against any signatories to the
agreement," according to the broadcast. An attack or the threat
of attack against one of the members of the treaty agreement would be
considered as hostility toward all.

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The so-called "Minsk Memorandum" was signed by Russia, Belarus,
Armenia and the Central Asian republics of Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Tajikistan. All the signatories to the agreement are part of the larger
Commonwealth of Independent States, successor entity to the former Soviet
Union.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have both suffered from attacks by Islamic
fundamentalist guerrillas. Since their independence from the U.S.S.R.,
Tajikistan fought a prolonged civil war with insurgents who received
support from neighboring Afghanistan.

The defense treaty among the six nations is part of a larger set of
agreements among the former Soviet republics. Five of the six
signatories to the collective security treaty have joined into a closer
political and economic union.

Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have transformed
their already existing customs union into a "supranational" grouping
likened to the European Union.

The president of Kazakstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, referred to the new
union as a "milestone," describing it as a "Eurasian customs union." The
purpose of the new union is to lower barriers to economic integration,
and provide for the common defense of these former Soviet republics.

Nazarbayev's comparison of the "Eurasian customs union" to the
European Union does not do justice to the new arrangement. While the EU
is split among factions and there is no single dominant state, language
or culture, the new Eurasian union -- as well as the entire Commonwealth
of Independent States itself -- is dominated by one powerful member:
Russia. Russian language, culture and technological achievements provide
a common bond among the former Soviet republics.

With the exception of the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania, each of the former Soviet republics is dependent upon Moscow
and has formalized that dependency in one way or another.

An agreement that Putin says is "looking to the future," the "Minsk
Memorandum" not only ties its members closer to Moscow, but adds a
significant element of instability to international relations.

The "Minsk Memorandum" claims for its signatories the right to attack
if a "possibility of aggression" exists. While today the fundamentalist
Islamic Taliban is targeted for possible attack, the question will
inevitably arise: Who else might be deemed a threat -- deserving the next
"preventive" assault?