Voter.com predicts GOP president

With over five months still to go before the presidential election,
an influential political website has projected that

Texas Gov. George
W. Bush, the likely Republican nominee, will win a slight victory over his presumed challenger,

Vice
President Al Gore.

Texas Gov. George W. Bush -- predicted to win by voter.com

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According to

Voter.com, Bush is likely to win 273 electoral votes to Gore's 236, with 29 electoral votes in two states -- Iowa and Illinois -- listed as statistical "ties."

The prediction was made by the website's Political Advisory Board, which based its results on a number of factors, including how candidates stood on the issues, fundraising elements and endorsements.

The projected loser, Vice President Al Gore

As outlined

on the group's website, Gore is expected to do well in the North at both ends of the country, carrying virtually all of the upper Northeast as well as Washington state, Oregon and California in the West. He will most likely carry upper midwestern states and his home state of Tennessee and Arkansas in the central Midwest. Also, Gore probably wins Hawaii.

Bush, the chart shows, is predicted to take the rest of the country, including a virtual sweep of the Western states (minus California, Oregon and Washington), most of the Southwest and South, and about half of the central Midwest. Bush probably also takes Alaska.

One interesting aspect of the Voter.com prediction is that Bush loses two key states in terms of electoral votes -- California (54 - #1) and New York (33 - #2). Rarely has a candidate won the presidential election without winning these two key states. Gore, however, loses most other high electoral-vote states, including Texas (32 - #3), Florida -- where Bush's brother, Jeb, is governor (25 - #4), Pennsylvania (23 - #5) and Ohio (21 - #7).

Illinois, with 22 votes, is sixth in ranking.

"Bush looks like he has the 'Big MO. But if it comes down to two or three states, Gore with the help of the unions and other ground forces could have an advantage," said Voter.com's Political Advisory Board. "The debates could make or break."

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Bush is seen having the advantage in terms of fundraising, the current polls, the issues, the political team he has assembled thus far, his ad campaigns, momentum and at the state / district level.

"Bush has done an outstanding job of neutralizing or winning on traditional Democrat core issues," Voter.com said.

Gore is seen attracting more grass roots support, so-called "intangibles," and endorsements.

"Gore will be strong in debates, [but] Bush will be the better retail campaigner," said Voter.com.

"Ralph Nader entering the race as a serious third-party candidate will give Gore convulsions in California and Washington," said Political Advisory Board member Carolyn Machado, though Gore is seen winning both of them.