A new poll shows that Democrats are slightly favored above Republicans in congressional races heating up this fall.
Portrait of America’s most recent congressional polling survey found support among likely voters leaning slightly towards Democrats, 39 percent to 37 percent. The results, analysts said, came from nightly telephone interviews conducted Aug. 29, 30 and 31.
POA said the next update would be available immediately following the Labor Day weekend on Sept. 3.
Analysts cautioned that the survey contained a few important caveats, adding that the figures represented didn’t necessarily reflect which major political party would end up controlling Congress after Nov. 7.
“Control of Congress will be determined by the outcome of a few individual House races,” POA analysts said. “It is expected that, out of the 435 congressional House seats up for election, only 30-40 are likely to be at all competitive.
“In the last congressional election, incumbents defeated challengers 99 percent of the time,” researchers said.
Also, POA researchers found that “there is a strong undercurrent of support for choices other than Republicans and Democrats.”
“If a third party candidate had a viable chance of winning the congressional election in their district, 31 percent of voters would cast their vote for a Democrat, 20 percent for the third party option and 31 percent for a Republican,” said the POA survey.
Rasmussen Research conducted the telephone surveys of 2,250 likely voters. The margin of sampling error for the full 3-night sample is 2 percentage points, with a 95 percent level of confidence.
Though in recent weeks his lead has dwindled, Republican leaders hope that party nominee George W. Bush can win the White House while the GOP retains its control over both Houses of Congress. However, some political analysts have said that one-party control over the legislative and executive branches does not guarantee legislative success.
For example, analysts point to the first two years of President Clinton’s first term, when Democrats were the majority in Congress and also held the White House. One of the Clinton administration’s first-term priorities was universal health care, which was soundly defeated amid some controversy when it finally came up for a vote in 1994.
Also, other Clinton administration first-term policies, such as the promotion of homosexuals in the military and the White House’s massive 1993 tax increase, likely helped Republicans gain control over both Houses for the first time in 40 years after the 1994 elections, analysts say.
Nevertheless, Democrats are also eyeing both branches and are increasingly enthusiastic, especially after last week’s narrowing of most national polls between Bush and Democratic nominee Al Gore.
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