All signs point to invasion

According to Hong Kong media outlets, the central command of the
People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese Communist Party decided to move
their army to the south, closer to Taiwan — yet another indication of
China’s plans to attack the island nation seeking independence from the
communist giant.

In 1980, ex-leader of the Communist Party, Deng Xia-peng, decided to
cut his military force by retiring almost one million PLA officers and
soldiers. And in 1990, the Chinese government forced another
half-million soldiers into retirement. These actions, however, did not
lower the PLA’s military readiness. Quite the opposite effect occurred
— by cutting the number of mouths to feed, the PLA was able to use its
resources toward modernizing its still-immense military force.

At an Aug. 27 meeting, Chinese officials decided to split three army
groups and sent them to join armies already in the south. The relocated
forces are reputed to be the most powerful and most modern forces. They
are now stationed at the southern command bases of Guang-zhou and
Nan-jing, which face the Taiwan Strait.

It is interesting to note that the 27th army of a military division
relocated near Taiwan is the same force that moved into Beijing in 1989,
killing students and other pro-democracy activists in Tiananmen Square.

Over the last few months, Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Chinese President Jiang Zemin have had several meetings. Something is
definitely going on there that cannot be ignored. I would not be
surprised if the PLA moves its forces currently located at the northern
Russian border down to the south near the Taiwan Strait. If these little
chats between the two leaders have led to a non-aggression agreement,
China would be free to relax its northern military readiness in favor of
a southern conflict. All Jiang wants to concentrate on now is how to
“unite China.”

One concrete result of the two leaders’ conversations was a contract
signed by Putin and Jiang, selling China high-tech aircraft that Russia
would deliver in three years. But that wasn’t fast enough for Jiang,
who arranged to lease existing Russian fighters, the first of which
arrived two months ago. What’s the rush?

China’s decision to relocate some of its military forces was the
result of a Bei-dai-he meeting. Bei-dai-he is a Chinese Camp David, of
sorts. For generations, emperors and their wives have vacationed there
during the summer, when Beijing heats up like an oven. The weather at
Bei-dai-he is very mild as it is near the ocean. Communist Chinese
rulers have followed in their emperors’ footsteps. Officially, the ruler
is on “retreat,” but every year, China’s top military leaders are
invited for the two-month getaway. It is common knowledge that those
two months are used by political and military leaders to decide the
nation’s agenda for the next year.

I believe they have reached three goals at this year’s retreat. The
first of those goals is to maintain a good relationship with the United
States. That would be the “only way” to stop Taiwan’s independence
movement and consequently, to reunite the island with its communist
“motherland.” Eventually, Taiwan will have to make a decisive move
asserting its independence, but it will not be able to do so without the
support of the United States. If China and the U.S. are buddy-buddy,
that move will have far less likelihood of succeeding.

Second, I believe China will step up its efforts at direct or
indirect communication with the Democratic Progressive Party in
Taiwan. The DPP gained power with the election of President Chen
Shui-Bian, who is a champion of Taiwan independence. If Chen’s party
can be wooed into seeing the “benefits” of communism and Taiwan-China
unity, the Taiwanese people will be more attracted to the “one China”
policy.

And third, China will continue increasing PLA military readiness.
Communist Chinese leaders do not trust Taiwan’s President Chen. They
know that sooner or later, he will attempt to formally establish
Taiwanese independence. When that happens, China will be ready to use
force to crush Chen’s efforts.

For the last eight years of his presidency, Jiang has worked to
centralize control of China’s military into his political realm. Once
the largest money-making business organization in China, the PLA was
ordered by Jiang about three years ago to stop much of its non-military
business. That was a serious blow to the military that shifted the bulk
of China’s internal power base from the PLA to the politicos. In the
hopes of regaining the stature they once had, PLA generals are surely
planning to attack Taiwan.

That may be one reason for China’s anticipated invasion of Taiwan,
but don’t forget that Jiang would love nothing more than to leave a
legacy as the great ruler who united China. Under Jiang’s leadership,
China again made sure Taiwan’s application for admission to the United
Nations was rejected this year at the United Nations’ annual meeting in
New York. This was Taiwan’s eighth attempt at recognition, and Clinton
seemed to take China’s side. According to the Asian media, America’s
president urged Chen very strongly to negotiate with China.

Recently, it has also been reported that the United States moved
defense missiles into Guam, which is near the Taiwan Strip. According to
the American media, Guam has never been home to such a huge capacity of
weaponry before, indicating that the United States is also preparing for
a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Remember, China is already performing
military exercises in the south, including invasion techniques.

So just when will all this take place? Let’s look at surrounding
events. The American election is just around the corner. Nothing will
happen before Election Day on Nov. 7, because Beijing rulers like
Democrat presidents. They wouldn’t want to risk creating a bad
situation for their favorite American political party. But while they
won’t do anything militarily, they will surely ask the current
administration for something in return for their calculated restraint.

And just what does China want from the U.S., you ask? PNTR — that
little acronym that has caused such heated debate in Congress and
abroad. In case you’ve forgotten, it stands for permanent normal trade
relations. It is obvious that President Clinton is the
lobbyist-in-chief for China on this issue.

Ladies and gentlemen, I have a prediction: After our election on Nov.
7, American politicians will be exhausted from their campaign war, and
the American people will either be wrapped up in their glee or sorrow
over the results. Then Christmas arrives. I hope I am wrong, but the
most dangerous moment for Taiwan will be from Dec. 15-31. All China
needs is two weeks to invade the island, empower its own leaders and
declare “one China.” President Clinton will use lip service, telling
China that it “just can’t do that.” But then he will leave office,
placing the conflict in the hands of the next president.

When I think how Jiang attended the U.N. world peace conference, I
don’t know whether to laugh or cry. He wants to project the image of
peacemaker to the world, but it’s not true. And unless Americans do
something about it, a nation struggling for independence from a
communist giant will pay a heavy price for daring to believe in freedom
and justice for all.

That’s the reason why

I asked George W. Bush two days ago, face-to-face, when he came down to Los Angeles, “Would you defend Taiwan?” He said he “definitely” will.