Over the last week, many polls have showed different results. But if
you look closely, they aren’t as divergent as the media suggests.
On Friday, five national polls showed anything from a 10 point Gore
lead (Gallup) to a 5 point Bush lead (Battleground.).
Rasmussen Research polls have consistently shown a small Bush lead
within the margin of sampling error. While it sounds like a huge spread,
three of the five polls showed the race well within the margin of
sampling error and Battleground showed a 5-point lead with a 3-point
margin of sampling error. (Zogby had Gore by 4 and Public Opinion
Strategies said that the race is dead even.) Nothing in the numbers
demonstrated a clear path to victory for either candidate.
Only Gallup showed Gore with a credible lead and even their numbers
now show Bush up three points! It is worth noting that Gallup interviews
only a couple hundred people each night — meaning their 3-day average
is drawn from around 700 interviews.
The difference in polls all revolved around the vote total for Al
Gore. At the low end, Battleground said he was at 38 percent with Bush
trailing by 5. At the high end, Gallup said Gore reached 51 percent,
leading Bush by 10. But, as I write today, Zogby shows Bush with a
slight lead (43.9 to Gore’s 42), as does Battleground (44 Bush, 41
Gore)! It’s difficult for polling firms to get any closer than that!
Why Gore has bounced around in the different polls is difficult to
know, but it may have something to do with the way each poll screens for
likely voters or pushes the undecided voters. Gallup’s numbers last week
may be nothing more than a fluke based on a bad sample one night. Those
types of things happen to all polling firms and eventually work
themselves out.
At Rasmussen Research, we interview 750 likely voters each night for
a 3-day sample of 2,250 likely voters. The larger sample leads to less
volatility in the numbers — and a more consistent view of the race.
Collectively, all the polls confirm the Portrait of America Tracking
Poll showing Bush and Gore both supported by just over 40 percent of the
population.
Our state-by-state polling analysis supports the national results. At
the moment, we show Gore leading in states with 213 electoral votes and
Bush leading in states with 210 electoral votes.
It’s easy to get carried away by focusing on the differences.
However, while big leads are dramatic, they are not necessarily accurate.
They each have a base of safe states and a series of competitive
battleground states. It is extremely rare in American politics to have a
race this close and suggests the debates may play a bigger role in this
year’s election than they usually do. It’s not because massive numbers
of people will change their mind based upon the debates; it’s just that
a change of even a few percentage points could have a huge impact.
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