Bush up by 7, Rasmussen says

By Jon Dougherty

With the third and final presidential debate over less than four weeks from the Nov. 7 election, Republican presidential nominee and Texas Gov. George W. Bush continues to lead Democratic rival Al Gore in national polls.

In the

Portrait of America
poll, Bush still leads Gore – 47 percent to 40 percent – though these results do not reflect voter reaction to last night’s debate in St. Louis, POA analysts said.

The telephone survey, taken by Rasmussen Research, of 3,000 likely voters was conducted on Sunday, Monday and yesterday, October 14, 15 and 16. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence.

This week’s debate may be Gore’s last, best chance to turn the race around. It is also possible that news from the Middle East could shake up the race,” POA analysts said prior to the final debate.

Nationally, a series of debate analysts gave Gore a slight edge over Bush in determining who “won” the contest, but Gore has been given this honor following the previous debates as well – though his polling numbers have steadily fallen to Bush over the past three weeks.

In the third party races, according to POA, the number of “undecided” voters is slipping as more Americans make a final decision as to whom they will vote for. Green Party nominee Ralph Nader has 3.8 percent; Reform’s Patrick J. Buchanan has 1.1 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne has 0.9 percent; Natural Law Party nominee John Hagelin has 0.4 percent; and Constitution Party nominee Howard Phillips has 0.1 percent. Just 7.7 percent of voters said they were “not sure,” compared to double-digits a few weeks ago.

In POA’s Electoral College tracking survey, 239 votes are solidly or swinging towards Bush, compared to 168 for Gore. POA said 131 votes are still a toss-up;” 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Meanwhile, according to

the daily Voter.com tracking poll,
released this morning, Bush holds a two-point advantage over Gore, 42 to 40 percent, which is well within the survey’s margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Green Party nominee Ralph Nader received support from 4 percent and Reform Party candidate Patrick Buchanan was supported by 2 percent. Twelve percent of respondents remain undecided, analysts said.

The Voter.com poll results is based on 1,000 phone responses gathered over four nights. The Voter.com Battleground poll released today is part of a series of tracking polls published each weekday until Election Day. The survey is conducted by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates and Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group.



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Jon Dougherty

Jon E. Dougherty is a Missouri-based political science major, author, writer and columnist. Follow him on Twitter. Read more of Jon Dougherty's articles here.