With just over two weeks before the Nov. 7 general election, Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush has pulled substantially ahead of Democratic rival Al Gore in a number of national polls.
In the
Portrait of America poll, Bush rebounded from lost ground last week and by today was up 47 percent to Gore’s 41 percent.
“The telephone survey of 3,000 likely voters was conducted on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, Oct. 19, 21 and 22,” POA analysts said today. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence.
“The question now is whether Al Gore can find a way to make one last surge to make the race competitive on Election Day,” said analysts. “Polling over the next few days should give us the answer.”
“For the vice president to have a chance, he’ll have to start knocking down Governor Bush’s lead before this week is out,” said POA analysts today.
Among third-party candidates, Green Party nominee Ralph Nader has 3.6 percent; Reform’s Patrick J. Buchanan has 0.9 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne has 0.8 percent; Natural Law Party nominee John Hagelin has 0.1 percent; and Constitution Party nominee Howard Phillips has 0.1 percent. POA said 6.3 percent of voters answered “not sure.”
In POA’s
Electoral College tracking survey, 237 votes are solidly or swinging towards Bush, compared to 168 for Gore. POA said 131 votes are still a “toss-up;” 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.
“Much analysis has gone into the Electoral College aspect of the race in recent weeks. Like the national numbers, the states have been swinging in Bush’s direction,” said POA. “Most of this examination misses the point. If either candidate wins by more than a point or two, he won’t have any trouble with the Electoral College.”
Meanwhile, according to
the daily Voter.com tracking poll released this morning, Bush has stretched his lead by five points over Gore, 44 to 39 percent – well outside of the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
“GOP presidential nominee George W. Bush carries significant momentum into the final two weeks of the race for the White House,” Voter.com analysts said today.
Meanwhile, analysts said, favorability ratings are also shifting.
“Just a week ago, 55 percent of likely voters said they held a favorable impression of Gore while 38 percent held an unfavorable impression of him,” analysts said. “The latest Voter.com Battleground poll, released Monday, finds that 50 percent now hold a favorable impression and 41 percent hold an unfavorable impression.
“By contrast, Bush’s favorability ratings are higher than Gore’s — and rising. A week ago, 57 percent said they held a favorable impression of Bush and 34 percent said they held an unfavorable impression. In the latest poll, 58 percent say they hold a favorable impression and 32 percent hold an unfavorable impression.”
The Voter.com poll results are based on 1,000 phone responses gathered over four nights. The Voter.com Battleground poll released today is part of a series of tracking polls published each weekday until Election Day. The survey is conducted by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates and Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group.
On the campaign trail, both major party candidates are making final pushes for the White House, shifting strategies and working feverishly to reach undecided voters, especially in key states.
Bush is planning to campaign in nine states with fellow GOP governors this week as Gore, who will meet with families at “kitchen table” and other small settings, in an effort to learn what “real voters are concerned with,” his campaign said.
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