Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush has widened his lead in new polls over Democratic challenger Al Gore by what many analysts say is a very safe margin should Bush manage to retain his advantage between now and the Nov. 7 election.
According to the
Portrait of America poll released this morning, Bush has continued his 47 to 41 percent lead over the vice president.
“The telephone survey of 3,000 likely voters was conducted on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, Oct. 21, 22 and 23,” POA analysts said, adding that the poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percent — a margin Bush has surpassed easily at this point.
In the third-party races, Green Party nominee Ralph Nader — who has begun to chip away at the vice president’s supporters, especially in California — has 3.6 percent; Reform’s Patrick J. Buchanan has 1 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne has 0.7 percent; Natural Law Party nominee John Hagelin has 0.1 percent; and Constitution Party nominee Howard Phillips has 0.1 percent. POA said 6.7 percent of voters answered “not sure.”
According to POA, Republicans are also doing slightly better than Democrats
in congressional races. Analysts said that GOP candidates lead Democrats 41 to 39 percent, though the poll’s margin of error — 1.8 percent — puts those contests nearly even. POA said that not many seats would change hands in Congress, considering the historical good performances and advantages held by incumbents.
Meanwhile, in
the daily Voter.com tracking poll, released this morning, Bush has opened up a very wide lead over the vice president, stretching Monday’s 5-point lead to 8 points.
According to Voter.com, Bush now leads Gore 46 to 38 percent — a figure well outside of the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
“GOP nominee George W. Bush continues to pick up momentum — not only from previously undecided voters but also from likely voters who had earlier indicated support for Democratic nominee Al Gore,” said Voter.com analysts this morning..
The Voter.com poll results are based on 1,000 phone responses gathered over four nights. The Voter.com Battleground poll is part of a series of tracking polls published each weekday until Election Day. The survey is conducted by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates and Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group.
“The Bush campaign appears to be gaining support across many different demographic groups, including single voters, married voters and male voters,” said Voter.com.
“Over the past week, Bush has gained 5 points among single voters, cutting Gore’s lead to 2 points. Among married voters, Bush has gained four points, increasing his overall advantage to 17 points. Among men, Bush has gained 14 points, lifting his commanding lead to 24 points,” analysts said.
“During the same time period, Gore has picked up 4 points among women, giving him a 7-point edge.”
On the campaign trail, Democrats are urging President Bill Clinton to make trips to California to stump for the vice president because recent polling data in the most populous state show Gore has lost his double-digit lead following months of intense campaigning there by Bush. The GOP has also spent millions on issue advertising, but Gore and the Democrats — expecting an easy win in a traditionally Democratic state — have paid little attention to California, save for fund-raising trips and going to Los Angeles for this year’s Democratic National Convention.
California has the most electoral votes with 54, a fifth of the 270 needed to win the election.
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