Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Al Gore has managed to narrow the gap in a new national poll while his opponent, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, has widened his lead in another.
According to the
Portrait of America poll released this morning, Gore has cut Bush’s lead to just three points. According to POA, Bush leads 46 to 43 percent, which is just inside the poll’s margin of error.
The telephone survey of 3,000 likely voters was conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, Oct. 31, Nov. 1 and 2. Analysts said the poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence.
According to POA analysts, Bush has kept his advantage in electoral votes. “In the Electoral College, POA’s survey shows Bush leading in states with 231 electoral votes,” analysts said today.
Meanwhile, “Gore is leading in states with 168 electoral votes. That means Bush needs to win just 39 of the 139 toss-up votes to reach the magic number of 270. Al Gore needs to win 102 of those 139 toss-up votes,” POA said.
Among third-party candidates, POA said Green Party nominee Ralph Nader has dropped to just 3.7 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne and Reform’s Patrick J. Buchanan are tied at 1 percent; Natural Law Party nominee John Hagelin has 0.2 percent; and Constitution Party nominee Howard Phillips is not registering. Researchers said 5.3 percent of voters were “not sure.”
Meanwhile, in
the daily Voter.com tracking poll, also released this morning, Bush’s lead has opened to 7 points. In the Voter.com survey, Bush leads 46 to 39 percent — a figure that is well outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percent.
“Green Party nominee Ralph Nader received support from 5 percent and Reform Party candidate Patrick Buchanan was supported by 1 percent. Ten percent of respondents remain undecided,” Voter.com analysts said.
The Voter.com poll results are based on 1,000 phone responses gathered over four nights. The Voter.com Battleground poll is part of a series of tracking polls published each weekday until Election Day. The survey is conducted by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates and Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group.
“This past week has been a good one for the Texas governor. In the Voter.com Battleground poll released this past Monday, Bush had a slim 3-point advantage over Gore. In the poll released today, Bush has increased his lead to seven,” analysts said.
On Friday, Al Gore will be campaigning in Arkansas, Minnesota and Missouri, while George W. Bush will spend the day in Michigan.
Bush — in a news conference last night — admitted to being arrested in Kennebunkport, Maine, Sept. 4, 1976, for driving under the influence of alcohol. A local TV affiliate broke the story late yesterday.
Regretting the incident, Bush said he was suspicious about the timing of the release of the report, though the Gore camp has denied any involvement.
An attorney in Maine who was also a delegate to the Democratic National Convention gave local reporters a court document detailing the charges.
Bush was pulled over by local police after running off the road briefly. Also in the car were his sister Dorothy and Australian tennis star John Newcombe and his wife.
Police said Bush was very congenial and cooperative during the booking procedure.
Maine temporarily suspended his driving privileges there, but the state of Texas — where Bush also had a driver’s license — took no action.
Get complete election news coverage here
Democrats’ seething hatred for America
Wayne Allyn Root