Taipei arms to counter China’s naval threat

April 25, 2001

Taiwan officials have said they are generally pleased with the weapons package approved for sale by the Bush administration, noting that it includes several weapons systems designed to help the island democracy counter rival China’s growing naval threat.

While President Bush, acting on the recommendations of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other senior national security officials, decided not to allow Taiwan to buy its most sought-after prize — Aegis-equipped destroyers — Bush did approve the sale of four 1980s-era Kidd-class destroyers and eight modern, advanced diesel-electric submarines to bolster Taiwan’s fleet and enhance its naval defense capabilities.

One of two Taiwanese “Sea Tiger” semi-modern diesel electric subs, built on a Dutch design.

Analysts and weapons experts have told WND that China’s naval power has been steadily growing for years.

Beijing’s inclusion into its South Sea Fleet of two new modern, Russian-built Sovremenny-class destroyers armed with SS-N-22 “Sunburn” anti-ship missiles; Russian-built, ultra-quiet Kilo-class subs; new indigenously built Xia-class ballistic-missile subs; and increasing numbers of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, have all combined to improve the People’s Liberation Army Navy to the point where it could soon blockade Taiwan while preventing access to the region by U.S. relief forces.

In the past, the U.S. has elected not to sell Taiwan submarines over fears they could be used as offensive weapons platforms. But since the administration this year elected not to provide Taiwan with highly sought-after Aegis warships, and given China’s known advances in naval technology and ability, the White House decided to approve submarine sales to Taipei this year.

Indeed, Taiwan’s sub fleet is less than one-tenth that of China’s; Beijing has nearly 60 operational submarines, with about one-third of them considered “modern.” Taiwan has four; two of those are World War II-era “Guppy-class” models.

The new subs — eight of them, to be built by Ingalls Shipbuilding, reports say — should be in Taiwan’s fleet by 2006. Meanwhile, it will take until 2003 to reactivate the four Kidd-class destroyers, run them through new weapons and sea trials, ensure their overall seaworthiness, make needed repairs and sail them to Taiwan.

A “Chao Yang” class, World War II-era destroyer. The ship is from the former U.S.-built Gearing class of warships. This is one of seven still in operation in Taiwan’s navy.

That, however, is far less time than it would have taken to build and deliver four new Arleigh Burke-class Aegis-equipped warships; the U.S. could not have fully delivered them until 2010, officials said last week.

“Submarines can be both defensive and offensive,” Tsai Ming-yen, an associate research fellow of strategic and international studies at the Taiwan Research Institute in Taipei, told Agence France-Presse yesterday. “It’s a very effective deterrent.”

“If the Bush administration agrees to sell us submarines, it will help keep the military balance in the Taiwan Strait,” Tsai — a China military specialist — told AFP.

Tsai and other Taiwan-based analysts believe that last week’s large military exercise focusing on Taiwan’s ability to repel a mock Chinese invasion is akin to focusing on the wrong problem.

“By the time they [Chinese forces] attempt to land, it’ll be too late,” he said.

Rather, he and other U.S. and Asian analysts believe China is hoping to build up its naval forces to enforce a blockade of Taiwan at some future date, then remain powerful enough to prevent U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups from operating in the area in a Taiwan support role.

Analysts have said China does not need to actually destroy U.S. ships, but has to present a credible enough threat of being able to destroy them that Washington would be leery of sending them into a war zone where the $3.5 billion ships could be sunk, or at least severely damaged, by China’s supersonic anti-ship missiles.

The Kidds, combined with the new diesel subs, the Pentagon said yesterday, should provide Taiwan a much more even match with China, and could even lead Beijing to second-guess its own military’s abilities. Subs, the Pentagon said, are Taiwan’s “unknown quantity” — easy to conceal and hard to detect.

Any blockade of the island would have to be done, in major part, with submarines, but the subs Taiwan is buying are quiet, capable, and a credible threat to China’s submarine fleets, experts told WND.

“The two biggest threats to Taiwan are missiles and a naval blockade,” Chen Chung-hsin, a Taiwanese legislator and member of parliament’s defense sub-committee, told AFP.

The Bush administration also reportedly agreed to sell another high-priority weapon system to Taipei — 12 P-3 Orion aircraft — which are specifically designed to hunt, track and destroy submarines.

The administration, however, has decided to defer a decision on whether to sell M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks, AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missiles and Patriot PAC-3 air defense missiles.

The White House said it may decide to sell some of those systems to Taiwan after the U.S. Army completes a study of Taiwan’s ground forces needs.