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The generals in charge of Iraq’s no-fly zones — Gen. Tommy R. Franks, commander of the U.S. Central Command, and Gen. Joseph W. Ralston, commander of the U.S. European Command — have indicated the United States should reduce flights over Iraq.
Their report precedes the Bush administration’s plan to restructure U.N. sanctions in response to increased Arab engagement with Iraq.
The U.S. commanders have cited pilot safety as a reason for the reduction of flights, but that is not the only reason. Baghdad’s determination to shoot down a coalition aircraft is still limited by its degraded military capability. In fact, both generals agree Iraq rarely turns on its radars, which are easy targets when active.
The Bush administration is looking to increase Arab-U.S. cooperation in the region while maintaining the ability to strike at Iraq, monitor the Iraqi military and provide protection for Iraqi opposition groups. Reducing the tempo of U.S. and British flights over northern and southern no-fly zones will placate Iraq’s neighbors, providing Washington with the ability to maintain sanctions on Baghdad. Ralston, who is responsible for the northern no-fly zone over Iraq, has even recommended ending patrols over northern Iraq altogether.
The United States has publicized reports from its field commanders to gauge domestic reaction to a potential policy shift. The limited media response and public reaction to the findings will result in the reduction of flights. Washington, when it announces the new policy, will insist limiting flights indicates an adjustment in Washington’s new Iraq policy, rather than a retreat.
The Bush administration has demonstrated a willingness to attack Iraq when challenged. In February, U.S. and British warplanes struck at Baghdad. Washington cited Iraqi attempts to shoot down coalition aircraft and attempts to upgrade its radar command and control capability as reasons for the attack.
The attack brought a large round of condemnation from allies in the Middle East and increased calls for ending the flights over Iraq. Baghdad claims the coalition bombings have caused more than 300 civilian deaths. Opposition groups in neighboring states have used this information to foment anti-American sentiment. This internal dissent has made it difficult for states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia to maintain strong ties with the United States.
A number of countries in the region have re-engaged Iraq. The process has resulted in an erosion of sanctions and growing calls from Egypt, Jordan and Syria for an end to sanctions because the governments feel that sanctions hurt the Iraqi people, not the regime. To a great extent, Iraq has been able to manipulate regional powers and reduce the impact of sanctions. Egypt, Jordan, Syria and even Turkey have been willing to politically and economically re-engage Iraq.
Politically, Iraq and Syria continue to enhance their diplomatic relations. The countries broke with each other following Damascus’ support for Tehran during the Iran-Iraq war. As well, Damascus participated in the Gulf War on the side of the allies. Syria and Iraq only recently have begun to warm to each other. Mohammad Hassan Tawab was named to head the Syrian interest section in Baghdad, according to Al-Awsat. This follows the opening of an Iraqi interest section in Syria in March 2000.
Economically, Iraq’s neighbors also are moving toward closer relations. The Royal Jordanian Airlines announced the resumption of commercial flights to Baghdad during the first week of June. Ministers from Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, Syria and the United Arab Emirates signed an accord that provides for developing an integrated network of road, rail, sea and airports. As well, Turkey — a key regional U.S. ally — has announced its intention to restart regular rail service to Baghdad as a means of boosting business ties. Turkey claims sanctions have cost more than $35 billion in trade.
Washington now wants to regain control over the issue of sanctions and maintain good relations with the Arab countries. To do that the Bush administration is working to re-engineer the U.N. sanction policy. Washington will work to lift sanctions on civilian goods but will maintain control over technology and supplies that can be used to upgrade Iraq’s military. Washington also desires a measure of control over revenues generated by the sale of oil.
Washington also may be attempting to reduce the high cost of continuous flight operations.
Approximately 20,000 American service personnel are stationed in the Gulf region onboard Navy ships or onshore in connection with Operation Southern Watch. In addition, about 1,200 Air Force personnel are stationed in Turkey and conduct Operation Northern Watch over the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq, according to a July 1999 Center for Defense Information report.
A Heritage report on the 2001 defense budget places the cost of maintaining the no-fly zones at approximately $1 billion per year. Fewer flights will reduce operational maintenance costs. Pilots in the Middle East may not fly as often, but pilots in other regions may be allowed more flight training. The requirement for a large supply of spare parts and material, while not being eliminated, could be reduced. The generals’ recommendations do not indicate a reduction in capabilities, meaning the United States could rapidly reply to any Iraqi threat, keep its pilots safe and reallocate funding.
The publicizing of the commanders’ recommendations was a test. The U.S. government hopes that showing flexibility on flights over Iraq will garner Arab political cooperation on the issue of targeted sanctions. The limited public reaction to the report will result in a rapid reduction of U.S. flights over Iraq, while maintaining an ability to strike at Baghdad when necessary.
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