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The government of Yugoslavia has approved draft legislation that, if passed by Parliament, would allow Yugoslav citizens to be extradited for trial in The Hague.
The draft legislation was approved June 14, paving the way for extradition of accused war criminals, such as former President Slobodan Milosevic. The legislation authorizes the government to cooperate with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague.
Although many Western governments link desperately needed aid to cooperation with the tribunal, many prominent Yugoslavs – including President Vojislav Kostunica – have opposed such extraditions. But now Kostunica has reversed himself. He favors the extradition law and expects adoption this week, although he still notes that adoption does not equal implementation.
Kostunica’s shift and the sudden changes in the behavior of international lending institutions are signs a deal is in the works that will lead to Milosevic’s surrender and Yugoslavia’s reconstruction. Milosevic could be in The Hague, or well on his way, by summer’s end.
Kostunica’s change of tune indicates Washington received assurances from Belgrade months ago that Milosevic would ultimately stand trial.
Moreover, the just-announced $249 million loan from the International Monetary Fund is another source of evidence. Three months ago, the IMF clearly stated Yugoslavia would not receive loans until both the London Club of private investors and the Paris Club of sovereign creditors agreed to restructure or write off Yugoslavia’s debts “on appropriate terms.”
The standby loan, announced June 11, indicates the IMF has received assurances a debt write-off is imminent.
Nearly all of Yugoslavia’s loans predate the 1992 Yugoslav breakup. The Milosevic government refused to honor these debts, allowing interest and penalties to accrue. The debt is now $12 billion – more than Yugoslavia’s GDP. Many at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the first international financial institution to readmit Yugoslavia, privately say a two-thirds write-off is appropriate and likely.
But debt write-offs of this size are difficult, particularly when major powers oppose them. As the largest IMF shareholder, the United States could easily have blocked the $249 million loan – but didn’t.
Washington is also a major player in the EBRD, which is already very active in Belgrade. Far from being obstructionist, the United States has signaled loan approval for Belgrade in several international power centers.
The United States’ approval is essential for Yugoslavia. Without American participation and debt write-off, Belgrade will remain unable to raise approximately $1 billion it needs to restore the country to a semblance of normalcy before winter. Without very visible reconstruction, Yugoslavs punished by a decade of sanctions and war could turn against their new government.
But Belgrade apparently cut a deal for Milosevic’s extradition months ago to ensure the needed financial aid. Only now is the drama is being played out in Belgrade, as Yugoslavs put the necessary legal infrastructure in place. Once that happens, the United States will make its private help public – complete with fast-tracked aid.
Kostunica has been the last substantive barrier to Milosevic’s extradition. Since the former president was ejected, the question has not been will Milosevic stand trial, but where. Even the Montenegrin Socialist People’s Party, a relatively pro-Milosevic faction, does not object to trying Milosevic in Yugoslav courts. And the Serbian government has become even more prone to turn Milosevic over to The Hague.
Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic said June 14 that fighting the ICTY would lead the country to ruin, the Beta news agency reported. Other Serbian ministers have publicly linked Milosevic to “monstrous” Kosovo crimes and an alleged cover-up. Justice Minister Vladan Batic openly endorses the extradition legislation and admits some Yugoslavs are guilty of crimes worthy of the tribunal’s attention. And officials, including Djindjic, recently have hinted Yugoslav citizens could be extradited even without a functional cooperation law.
The prime minister, however, lacks the charisma to sell Milosevic’s extradition to the Serbian public, even though he and his government have effectively purged Yugoslavia’s power centers of Milosevic allies. Only Kostunica, with his nationalistic credentials can do that, making him the final barrier to Milosevic’s extradition.
Kostunica’s objections to extradition are no longer ideological, but technical. Milosevic will stand trial, and soon.
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