Hispanic vote roundup

PHOENIX – These should be heady days for long-suffering Democrats here in the Grand Canyon state. A key constituency – Hispanics – grew by 88 percent in the last decade. If Democrats could turn that population gain into votes, they might have a chance in 2002 to capture what eluded them three times in the 1990s: the governor's office.

Yet nothing in politics should ever be taken for granted. Hispanics, who now make up about a quarter of the state's population, might traditionally vote for Democrats. But they have long memories too.

And what grates their memory still is the July 1997 raid in the Phoenix suburb of Chandler where local police, working alongside U.S. Border Patrol agents, cast a virtual net over the city's Hispanic neighborhoods and nabbed more than 400 illegal immigrants. Also entangled was the U.S. Constitution. Hundreds of U.S. citizens of Hispanic origin had been stopped, interrogated and forced to produce proof of citizenship – all based on skin color, limited English-speaking ability and, in the words of one officer, the allegedly "strong body odor common to illegal aliens.''

The Chandler Roundup was a defining moment for Arizona's elected officials as well as for those individuals referred to – generously – as "Latino leaders.'' For politicians, criticizing the roundup meant assuming the political risk of appearing tough on cops and soft on illegal immigrants. For Latinos in search of positions of power and influence, making waves meant assuming the personal risk of alienating elements of the old-line Arizona establishment.

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And so, many held their tongues. One of them was Janet Napolitano, now serving as Arizona attorney general and mentioned as one of the two top Democrats likely to seek the gubernatorial nomination.

As the U.S. attorney for Arizona at the time of the roundup, Napolitano had the jurisdiction to investigate the actions of federal agents who joined in the illegal immigrant hunt. She could have pursued leads that the operation at the federal level was a response by the INS to prodding from prominent Republicans in Congress. She could have asked for a formal investigation by her superiors at the Clinton Justice Department. Or, she could have used the bully pulpit to stir the masses over the egregious nature of the incident.

That is precisely the sort of championing that many people – including several generations of Hispanic voters – have come to expect from Democrats. Instead, her eye presumably fixed on higher office, Napolitano did next to nothing.

Alfredo Gutierrez, the other top Democrat prominently mentioned as a likely gubernatorial candidate, did worse than nothing. Gutierrez, who resigned from the state Senate in 1986, is now a high-priced Phoenix-based lobbyist with a long record of fighting the good fight on behalf of Arizona Hispanics. But Gutierrez's resum? as a Mexican-American activist does not dare mention the Chandler Roundup. After rebuffing calls for help from Hispanics for more than a year following the incident, Gutierrez later sought to enter the fray on the other side by discreetly pitching Chandler city officials the services of his lobbying firm, Jamieson and Gutierrez. One service offered was Gutierrez's ability to do damage control and manage critics in the Hispanic community.

So, whereas one Democratic contender for governor cowered in the face of the Chandler Roundup, another tried to cash in. Neither stance will do much to help attract Hispanic support next year.

Napolitano is the early favorite in what could be a bruising battle for the Democratic nomination. Gutierrez may try to gain momentum by advancing the perception that his opponent is more of a bureaucrat than a leader. Asked to judge Napolitano's performance as the state's top lawyer, Gutierrez would go only so far as to call her "competent.''

Whatever the outcome of this duel in the desert, the effects of next year's governor's race could be felt well beyond the Southwest. From California to Texas to New York, Hispanic contenders, buoyed by census data, are gearing up to challenge the hand-picked candidates of the Democratic establishment.

They can count on at least some support from Hispanic voters who, after decades of loyally carrying water for Democratic candidates, are now anxious to carry their own across the finish line. They can also count on fierce resistance from the establishment they challenge – Democrats who are about to learn that it was much more fun running with Hispanic support than running against it.

All of this will be amusing to Republicans, who are also spending millions nationally to lure Hispanic voters. Here in this land of Barry Goldwater and John McCain, the GOP – in making their pitch to a fourth of Arizona's population – might be able to retain the governor's office and profit from the Democrats' mistakes.