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Syrian troops are moving out of Lebanon. And for the first time in years, some army battalions have pulled out of capital city, Beirut, with about 6,000 troops, or three of the five brigades assigned to Beirut, having departed earlier this month.
On the surface, the move appears to reflect a shift in Syrian foreign policy. Syria has dominated Lebanon since 1976, when troops intervened in the Lebanese civil war. The war ended in 1991, but about 30,000 Syrian soldiers stayed behind. Most of Syria’s troops in Beirut are leaving, and some are quitting Lebanon altogether.
But the recent redeployments do not signal a relaxation of Syrian control. Some soldiers are merely moving to new positions. The movement will pacify Lebanon’s Christian faction until Syrian forces regroup and reestablish Damascus’ grip on Lebanon under a proven commander, Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam.
Though small, Lebanon is a key pawn in Syria’s national security policy. Military bases in Lebanon’s Bekaa valley are vital for securing Syria’s vulnerable western border from possible Israeli attacks. And the Syrian government has profited from control of narcotics production centers and drug-smuggling routes through Lebanon. Syrian strongman Hafez Assad used the profits to reward allies.
But Damascus has come under increasing pressure to withdraw its troops since last year, when Hafez Assad died and Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon. Maronite Christian leaders have long opposed Syrian occupation but have become increasingly brazen in their criticism in recent months. So has Walid Jumblatt, leader of the small but influential Druze community, who added his voice to the outcry last fall.
But the pullout is more style than substance. Many troops had relatively little purpose, and some were relegated to guarding apartment complexes, The Financial Times newspaper reported. Damascus had already been recalling troops from Beirut at a snail’s pace for months, according to Lebanon’s Daily Star. Syria is now gaining political capital for something it probably wanted to do anyway.
Damascus still controls Beirut. Syrian troops are stationed at Beirut’s airport and its Muslim-dominated suburbs. Two elite brigades are to be stationed outside of the capital, according to Middle East Newsline, and plainclothes military intelligence officers remain in the city. The Daily Star reported that Syrian troops still staff five positions on less than 10 miles of road outside Beirut.
Syria loses nothing by downscaling. Between 6,000 and 8,000 troops have merely shifted to new bases, and Syria’s total military presence in Lebanon still hovers around 25,000 soldiers. The redeployment has a political shape, since most of the evacuated areas were Christian-dominated. This should be enough to satisfy most of the Christians for a short time, which is all Syria needs to regroup.
More important is the man who likely ordered the reshuffle. Vice President Khaddam officially assumed responsibility for Lebanon earlier this month, taking the reins from one of President Bashar Assad’s functionaries, according to Al-Nahah, a Beirut daily. Khaddam is among only a handful of Hafez Assad’s original advisers who have not been purged from government. He earned the nickname “Lebanon’s High Commissioner” for his role in cultivating the Syrian regime’s network of political control during the past 20 years.
Lebanon’s political elite are well aware of Khaddam’s fearsome reputation. Khaddam likely had a hand in the decision to pressure Druze leader Jumblatt in March, when Syrian troops moved into the Druze-held Shouf Mountains. The threat of violence — or of interference with Druze narcotics-refining operations — was apparently enough to rein in Jumblatt, who slowly toned down his rhetoric, eventually asking only for a Syrian gesture rather than complete withdrawal from Lebanon.
With the Christians pacified and the Druze subdued, Khaddam has enough time to reorganize Syrian forces and reestablish his grip on Lebanon. Once settled, he is extremely unlikely to permit the level of protest and dissent that his predecessor allowed. Syria will go back to playing puppet-master with Lebanon’s factions, and the possibility of Lebanese self-rule will remain in limbo.
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