Will Indonesia's new president make it?

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The decisions Megawati Sukarnoputri and Indonesia's other political leaders make over the next few weeks will foretell whether the newly elected president can fulfill the hopes of the international community and begin to lift her country out of economic, political and social turmoil.

Critical to her chances for success will be coming choices for a new vice president and her selections of Cabinet members. The outcome of both processes will determine the viability of her administration.

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Given Indonesia's highly contentious and factional politics, the choice of the vice president and Cabinet members will follow serious horse-trading among top factions. The result will be either a strong, unified Cabinet with several "opposition" factions left outside to challenge the government, or another "Cabinet of national unity," as former President Abdurrahman Wahid attempted to create and which has little chance of functioning.

Megawati will likely form a Cabinet that includes most political factions and interests. Such a Cabinet may bring with short-term stability, but members' inability to cooperate will likely doom it in the long run.

Moreover, while her moves may quiet the political turbulence that forced Wahid from office, few of Indonesia's most pressing problems are expected to be solved by the low-key Megawati, who in her nearly two years as vice president never appeared to develop significant strategies aimed at curing what ails Indonesia.

Wahid on July 25 added a new twist to the unfolding drama. Officials said he would leave the presidential palace July 26 to seek medical treatment in the United States, the Associated Press reported. Aides told the AP that Wahid had wished Megawati well.

During her attempt to win the presidency in 1999, Megawati released only a vague policy statement with few concrete suggestions for domestically led recovery and growth. In fact, it is her meager record in policy making that underlines the importance of the roles Cabinet members and the new vice president will play.

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In Jakarta, the vice presidency is a powerful position that has a large say in the running of many day-to-day government operations. With Megawati unproven as president, her deputy will have the opportunity to more greatly influence government policies.

The higher legislature is expected to select the new vice president on July 25 in a race that includes former Cabinet members who were fired by Wahid.

Near the top of the list is Akbar Tanjung, chairman of the former ruling Golkar Party and speaker of the House of People's Representatives, the lower house of parliament. Another leading contender is Hamzah Haz, chairman of the Muslim-oriented United Development Party and former coordinating minister of social welfare and poverty alleviation.

Reuters reported that Haz led the first round with 238 of 613 votes cast, followed by Tanjung and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a retired general and ex-chief security minister, who garnered 122 votes.

The three candidates are to compete in a second round. If none of the top three wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the second round, the top two from that round will go on to a third.

Ultimately the decision will likely be based on which candidate gains the support of Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and the military, the current powerbrokers in the government.

Tanjung was viewed before voting began as the frontrunner since his Golkar Party has the second-largest block of seats in parliament. But Haz may be chosen in order to appease Islamic factions who may have supported the possible vice presidency of Amien Rais, speaker of the upper house of parliament.

Rais initially supported Wahid's candidacy in 1999 but instigated his downfall with the recent push for impeachment. Rais, who did not run but leads a loose coalition of Islamic parties, appears content, at least for now, with being chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly.

Although the vice president can strongly influence policies, neither Tanjung nor Haz are considered direct threats to Megawati's tenure. They are both centrist politicians who will not challenge her current presidency. Yudhoyono was security minister under Wahid, who fired him for opposing Wahid's ill-fated attempt to impose a state of emergency in Indonesia. He is considered to represent the military faction in the government.

More important for the solving of Indonesia's myriad problems will be the makeup of the new Cabinet.

Under Wahid, the powers of the major factions were balanced: each was given one of the key positions in the executive branch, legislature or Cabinet. Members of the different factions thus held the positions of president, vice president, speaker of the parliament, speaker of the house and the Cabinet posts.

Megawati must now balance her Cabinet appointments as well. Representation must be given to qualified candidates who will inspire confidence from the domestic and international financial community. However, Megawati must also assign positions to appease factions supporting her rise to power.

A suggested proportional representation would give Megawati's party nearly a third of the positions in a unity Cabinet, followed closely by Golkar.

The United Development Party, one of the few government-approved "opposition" parties during the era of former President Suharto, and Wahid's National Awakening Party would each get around 10 percent of the Cabinet seats. The remaining positions would be split between the military, the National Mandate Party of parliament speaker Rais and minor groups.

Yet this is a very dangerous path to tread. Bringing too many factions into the Cabinet will lead to internal bickering and stalemate, rendering it unable to enact necessary economic and security policies. Such a situation plagued Wahid's term in office, forcing him to restructure his own short-lived unity Cabinet to avoid factional infighting.

A failure to repay political debts could also swiftly lead Megawati to face a similar fate as Wahid, who at first was strongly supported by those who later were most vocal about his impeachment. His attempts to change the Cabinet are what lead to his presidency ending ahead of schedule.

Megawati may be forced to take similar measures, but her position differs from Wahid's because she has support from the military. Such support may eventually be a mixed blessing.

The military will give her greater strength in dealing with other factional leaders, but her position as a president with few policies will lead the military to exert more influence over the government. Eventually this behind-the-scenes activity could become more overt, leading to resurgence of a military-led Indonesia.

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