Iran's move in southern Lebanon

Editor's note: In partnership with Stratfor, the global intelligence company, WorldNetDaily publishes daily updates on international affairs provided by the respected private research and analysis firm. Look for fresh updates each afternoon, Monday through Friday. In addition, WorldNetDaily invites you to consider STRATFOR membership, entitling you to a wealth of international intelligence reports usually available only to top executives, scholars, academic institutions and press agencies.

The Iranian government has increased its involvement in southern Lebanon, developing closer ties with political and militia leaders and shipping more arms to the region.

By attempting to increase its military presence and political influence in the area, Iran is taking advantage of Syria's inexperienced new leader, President Bashar Assad.

TRENDING: Report: Trump is considering forming a new political party

This development does not sit well with Syria, traditionally the main power broker in Lebanon. The competition for influence in southern Lebanon will sidetrack relations between Syria and Iran – and push Syria closer to Iraq. Eventually, Iran's policies and interests in the Persian Gulf will be threatened by a strengthened Iraq.

Lebanon is an important element in Syria's national security policy. Military bases in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley are vital for securing Syria's vulnerable western border from possible Israeli attacks. Iran's interests in Lebanon are less vital for Tehran's security. The Iranian government originally moved into southern Lebanon to put direct military pressure on Israel, but now Iran could potentially grab its own share of Lebanon, giving Tehran a base of operations on the Mediterranean and a hold on some of the region's smuggling routes.

Tehran has stationed troops in Lebanon since the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon prompted Tehran to send advisers to work with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. With few exceptions, the Iranian troops generally worked with Syria's permission and support, with most of their supply planes landing in Damascus.

Despite the pullout of Israeli troops from Lebanon last year, the Iranian soldiers remained as Hezbollah continued to fight for a few disputed areas. Tehran continues to supply Hezbollah with Katyusha rockets, but it has begun to ship anti-aircraft missiles such as the SA-7 and SA-9, according to Al-Nahar, a Beirut daily newspaper. These weapons aren't top of the line, but they keep Israeli aircraft from acting with impunity.

To augment its control over the south, Tehran is also forming ties with another power broker in southern Lebanon: Amal, a Syrian-sponsored militia that acts as a rival to Hezbollah. Amal opened an office in Tehran in May, according to Radio Free Europe. Iran is seeking to build support with as many power groups in the region as possible.

RELATED: Yemen blast: New phase in terror war?

Iran can't incite Hezbollah and Amal into military action to push Syria out of Lebanon. But many Lebanese political leaders also want a decreased Syrian presence.

Iran is not hiding its desire to operate in Lebanon without Syrian oversight. During a visit by Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri to Tehran on June 18, Iranian state media reported that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami called for the elimination of "red tape" – a reference to Syria – that has been hindering the expansion of relations between Iran and Lebanon.

Besides meeting with Hariri, a rival to Syrian-backed Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, Iranian officials also met with Druze leader and Lebanese power broker Walid Jumblatt, who effectively stated that Iran's position in Lebanon should be equal to Syria's, according to Iranian government media reports.

But Tehran will have a difficult time strengthening its role in Lebanon. Assad recently placed one of his father's old cronies, Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam, in charge of Syria's interests in Lebanon. Khaddam has already begun to reassert his country's power through a combination of political maneuvering and military pressure.

What will most likely happen is that Syria will look to Iraq – Iran's longtime rival – to act as a balance. Ties between Iraq and Syria are at the highest point in years. At the same time, relations between Iran and Syria will continue to deteriorate as a consequence of Iran's growing influence in Lebanon.

Damascus and Baghdad re-established official diplomatic ties last February after 20 years of animosity. During those 20 years, Iraq was surrounded by enemies and was threatened on both its eastern border with Iran and its western border with Syria. As Iraq breaks out of its isolation and mends ties with neighbors such as Syria, it will have more freedom to challenge Iran's position and policies in the Persian Gulf.

Get a discounted annual STRATFOR membership.