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On the seventh day of his 10-day train trip across Russia, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il visited an arms factory in the Russian city of Omsk on Aug. 1. The factory produces the T-80 tank, one of Russia’s most modern battle tanks, and symbolizes one of the key issues Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss during their summit beginning tomorrow.
Pyongyang is seeking new advanced weaponry from Moscow, including tanks, fighters, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank weapons. Putin and Kim are likely to agree on some economic issues, such as establishing rail links and revitalizing North Korea’s heavy industries, but the matter of arms sales will remain a contentious point. Moscow wants to increase its influence in North Korea in various ways, but it is wary of undermining ties with Seoul, Tokyo and Washington.
The summit is being monitored closely both for its economic potential and over concerns that new arms transfers could destabilize the balance of power in Northeast Asia. North Korea’s neighbors look favorably on possible economic cooperation between Russia and South Korea. Supplying Pyongyang with modern weaponry, however, would threaten to heighten tensions on the Korean peninsula and raise the ire of Tokyo and Washington.
Putin and Kim will discuss a wide range of topics during their meeting, a follow-up to the Russian president’s July 2000 visit to Pyongyang. As part of the discussions, Moscow is offering to upgrade North Korea’s rail system, a vital component in Russia’s plans to become the major trans-shipment route between East Asia and Europe. Connecting the inter-Korean railway with Russia’s Trans-Siberian Railroad may also spur the East Asian economy by facilitating land trade with Europe. At the same time, it would boost inter-Korean cooperation.
Pyongyang also wants Moscow’s assistance in restoring its aging Soviet-era heavy industrial infrastructure to help spur greater economic independence. This could lead North Korea’s economy toward recovery, reducing the threat of collapse and integrating Pyongyang into the regional economies. Both plans would give Russia greater influence in North Korea and more leverage in dealing with East Asian nations and the United States.
Putin is also seeking political routes to increase his influence in North Korea, portraying Russia to other states as the best path through which to deal with Pyongyang. According to Russian sources, Putin will urge Kim to abandon North Korea’s ballistic missile program, which remains Washington’s major justification for its proposed National Missile Defense system.
Russia’s Atomic Energy Ministry has also mooted the idea of Russian-North Korean cooperation on the peaceful use of atomic energy. If Moscow gained concessions or cooperation from Kim on these issues, it could usurp Washington, which has long worked to stem North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs.
Pyongyang and Moscow stand a reasonable chance of success in reaching agreements on the issues of economic cooperation. There is a slightly lower chance, however, of success on the issues of missiles and nuclear energy, although Kim had originally introduced the idea to Putin of ending North Korea’s ballistic missile program in exchange for foreign assistance in satellite launches.
North Korea also is seeking between $200 million and $500 million in new arms contracts from Russia, according to Russian and South Korean news reports. The requests cover a wide range of weapons systems, including upgraded T-80 tanks, MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters, Krivak missile frigates and S-300 surface-to-air missiles.
These would substantially improve North Korea’s aging military systems. The modernized T-80U would mark a substantial improvement over North Korea’s nearly 4,000 older Soviet T-34s, T-54s and T-62s. Adding more MiG-29s would allow Pyongyang to replace outdated MiG-17 and MiG-19 variants.
The Krivak frigate mounts anti-ship missiles similar to U.S. Harpoon missiles and would improve North Korea’s naval capabilities. The S-300 would offer a substantial improvement in North Korea’s air defense system, currently composed of older SA-2, SA-3 and SA-5 systems and complemented by more than 10,000 shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.
Another problem is Moscow’s concern that selling modern weapons to Pyongyang would undermine Russia’s economic ties to South Korea and its burgeoning relations with the United States. According to Russian intelligence sources, U.S. President George W. Bush personally pressured Putin at the G-8 summit in Genoa not to supply arms to North Korea.
Moscow’s caution has already affected relations with Pyongyang. Kim’s visit was originally planned for April but was reportedly postponed after Moscow and Pyongyang failed to reach an agreement on arms sales. Kim’s trip to Moscow suggests that some compromise was likely reached, though North Korea is not likely to get everything it wants. Any arms accord will probably be limited to defensive weapons such as anti-tank weapons and surface-to-air missiles.
Ultimately, however, Moscow’s own interests will govern its relations with Pyongyang. Russia needs North Korea to cooperate in rail links and would like to increase influence in Pyongyang as leverage in dealing with Washington, Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing. One major sticking point is whether North Korea would pay cash for any Russian weapons, which serve as a key source of hard currency for its beleaguered economy.
While Pyongyang and Moscow can cooperate on several economic and political issues, arms sales will remain a seed of discontent in relations between Kim and Putin.
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WND Staff