Poll finds little support
for amnesty

A new Zogby poll conducted on behalf of the Center for Immigration Studies shows that a majority of Americans from both ends of the political spectrum are against granting a general amnesty to illegal immigrants.

“While overall the poll finds little support for an amnesty, it does show some significant differences among groups. The strongest opposition is found among conservatives, moderates and voters in union households,” said a CIS press release announcing the poll’s findings.

Union voters are traditionally supporters of Democrats, not conservative Republican candidates, analysts point out.

The Zogby poll found that 55 percent of Americans believe granting illegal immigrants amnesty is a bad idea, compared to 34 percent who say it is a “good” or “very good” idea.

The strongest opposition to amnesty can be found among conservatives, with 60 percent thinking it is a bad or very bad idea compared to 26 percent who think it is a good or very good idea, said the poll.

“Perhaps most troubling for the president, almost one-third of all conservatives (32 percent) indicated that they would be less likely to vote for Bush if he supported an amnesty, while only 10 percent said they would be more likely to vote for him,” said CIS, citing the poll’s results.

Fifty-five percent of Democrats also said granting amnesty would be a bad idea, while 36 percent – slightly more than conservatives – believed it would be a “good” or “very good” idea.

Results of the CIS poll come as Mexican President Vincente Fox finished up a visit to the U.S. on Thursday, when he made an impassioned plea to the Senate to pass an amnesty bill.

Hours after Fox’s speech, the Senate passed, by voice vote, a bill that would allow immigrants likely to receive resident status – those with a job offer or a family relationship with a U.S. citizen – to stay in the United States while they go through the process. It would expire next April.

Meanwhile, Democrats vowed to pass an amnesty measure and called on President Bush to work with them to get it done. Bush faces stiff opposition in his own party to the plan, however.

Some analysts suggested that the White House was interested in pursuing a general amnesty as a way to woo Hispanic voters to Republican causes. But according to the Zogby/CIS poll, that strategy may actually backfire.

“An amnesty does not appear to be a way of winning Hispanic votes for either party, with 51 percent of respondents identifying it as a bad idea and 49 percent thinking it’s a good idea,” said CIS. “When asked how it might affect their vote, twice as many Hispanics in the survey (33 percent) said they would be less likely to vote for Bush in 2004 if he supported an amnesty compared to 15 percent who said they would be more likely to vote for him.”

The same basic pattern exists for Democratic candidates, with 36 percent of Hispanics saying they would be less likely to vote for a Democrat in Congress who supports an amnesty and 20 percent indicating they would be more likely to vote for a Democrat who supports amnesty, said CIS.

In other notable findings:

• Those opposed to the amnesty seem to be stronger in their opposition than proponents do in their support;

• The poll suggests that Bush not only risks alienating his conservative base if he supports an amnesty, but also most voters who identified themselves as “moderates” – a group vital to his re-election in 2004;

• Most troubling for congressional Democratic supporters of an amnesty, 33 percent of voters in union households said they would be less likely to vote for Democrats who supported an amnesty, compared to only 14 percent who said they would be more likely.

Zogby conducted the nationwide poll of 1,020 likely voters from Saturday, Aug. 25, to Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2001. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent. Researchers said questions were worded in as neutral a manner as possible.

“The fact that opponents of amnesty seem to feel more strongly in their opposition to amnesty than supporters do about their endorsement is one of the most important findings of this survey,” CIS said. “This greater intensity of feeling on the part of amnesty opponents means that it is not simply that most Americans are against it, but also that it might affect how they vote in 2002 and 2004. Thus, supporting an amnesty seems only to hurt and not help the president or Democrats and Republicans in Congress who might support it.”

“The opposition among persons in union households is one of the most interesting and in some ways the most surprising findings, because most union leaders strongly support an amnesty and have been actively making the case for it to their members for over a year,” CIS continued. “Yet, only a little over one-third (36 percent) of those in union households think an amnesty is a good idea. This strongly suggests that union leaders have a long way to go before their members agree with them on this issue.”

The White House was non-committal on the issue of a general amnesty – which could grant as many as 3 million illegal immigrants permanent legal status.

“The president commends the Senate for passage of legislation that will help unite families and make America more welcoming of new immigrants,” White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said following Thursday’s Senate vote.

However, Fleischer did say Bush hoped the GOP-led House passes the Senate’s temporary bill quickly so he can sign it into law.

Top Republican congressional leaders, meanwhile, have assured Senate leaders that the House would quickly move to pass the bill, reports said Friday.

“There are few issues on which Americans from a broad range of perspectives and backgrounds agree. Opposition to an amnesty appears to be one of those issues,” CIS analysts concluded. “There appears to be no major group in society that strongly supports amnesty. Moreover, there seems to be no group for whom a candidate’s support of amnesty would increase votes.”

The group said the second most important finding was that even though union, church and some business leaders support an amnesty, “this elite support has not translated into public support.”

“Of course, none of this shows that an amnesty is sound or unsound as a matter of public policy,” researchers concluded.