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The Indian government made a risky decision in offering to support possible U.S. air strikes against the Taliban. But strikes from within Indian territory could lead to Islamic militant attacks on American forces in the country and risk alienating mainstream Muslim leaders.
The Bush administration is still firming up plans for possible retaliatory strikes against Afghanistan following last week’s terrorist attacks. India is offering the use of three air bases and unspecified port facilities on the Arabian Sea as well as logistical support to U.S. forces, the Times of India reported Sept. 19.
Such assistance would allow sustained U.S. attacks and would open a second air front additional to bases in the Persian Gulf for a campaign against landlocked Afghanistan. A long buildup will be necessary, however. And U.S. air strikes from India would risk attacks on U.S. aircraft and personnel in the country by Islamic militants as well as alienate mainstream Muslim leaders.
U.S. President George W. Bush made a general request for Indian military and political assistance during a telephone conversation with Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee Sept. 16, The Hindustan Times reported. Though no specific requests have been made since, the Indian government volunteered access to the three air bases. India is also sharing with the CIA valuable intelligence on Osama bin Laden, the Taliban – Afghanistan’s ruling militia – and on Islamic extremists in the region.
New Delhi has several motives for cooperating with America in its anti-terrorism war. First, it is eager to accelerate its geopolitical shift toward America, which started when former U.S. President Bill Clinton visited India in the spring of 2000. The current Hindu nationalist government hopes a strategic alliance with the United States will serve India’s goal of becoming a world power. New Delhi’s hope is based on the fact that America and India have common geopolitical foes: China and international Islamic extremists.
The Indian government also hopes its cooperation will help it defeat Kashmiri and other domestic militants. For decades, India has experienced insurgencies and terrorist attacks. Islamic extremists that received manpower and training from bin Laden and the Taliban formed the most violent and strongest groups, such as those fighting for Kashmir’s independence. Defeating Islamic militants in Afghanistan would thus weaken Kashmiri separatists.
India’s calculation also includes the hope that the U.S. anti-terrorism war will radically change rival Pakistan in ways favorable to New Delhi. Pakistan will, under American pressure, have to either crack down on Pakistani-based Islamic militants fighting in Kashmir or be severely weakened in a future struggle between pro-Western forces, including in the government, and Islamists.
Finally, India hopes Washington will at last politically support New Delhi’s own counterterrorism war and change its posture regarding India’s fight against pro-Pakistan insurgents in Kashmir. So far the United States has occasionally criticized what it perceived as excessive use of force by Indian security forces in the Muslim-dominated state.
Despite India’s offer, Pakistan will play a more important role in Washington’s plans because of its 1,400-mile border with Afghanistan. But India still hopes to become a U.S. junior ally in the long run.
The Pentagon is eagerly considering India’s recent offer. The proposed air bases are Avantipur in Jammu and Kashmir state, Adampur in Punjab and Jamnagar in Gujarat, all in northwestern India. The 790-mile combat radius of the F-15 fighter jet would allow the U.S. military to launch sustained aerial attacks from these bases against Taliban positions in Kabul, Kandahar and other sites in eastern Afghanistan. For many flights, mid-air refueling over Pakistan would not be necessary.
The United States is also looking for “harboring facilities along [India’s] west coast for its warships, in case they are in distress, while operating in the Arabian Sea area,” according to the national daily The Hindu, citing highly placed sources in the Indian government. Both sides are also looking at sharing sensitive intelligence, especially on the basis of surveillance carried out by India.
But American air strikes on Afghanistan will put U.S. aircraft and personnel in India in danger. If Muslim clerics in Afghanistan declare a Jihad, or holy war, Islamic militants abroad, including those in India, will be obligated to fight Americans wherever they are found.
Though the Indian army and U.S. special forces in India would do their best to defend American assets, the United States is likely to sustain serious losses there.
First, U.S. forces would be attacked by combat-tested Kashmiri mujahideens, such as the Lashkar-i-Toiba, who are skilled in night raids, suicidal bomb attacks and ambushes.
Second, besides Kashmiri separatists, many other Islamic militant groups are likely to join the fight.
Third, some Sikh separatist groups fighting for the independence of Khalistan, as they call their future state in Punjab, may attack the proposed U.S. base there because they will consider Americans to be allies of their enemy, the Indian government.
Fourth, other non-Muslim militant organizations, such as the leftist Maoist People’s Army, could join the anti-U.S. fight as well. Serious losses might compel the U.S. command to withdraw its aircraft from the country.
The proposed cooperation poses risks for India’s government as well and could divide the nation along religious and political lines over what role, if any, New Delhi should play. Parties on the left naturally object to any India-U.S. alliance while the government’s main opposition force, the Indian National Congress, is divided on the issue as is the Indian public in general.
Moreover, some members of the ruling coalition are unsure of what consequences Indian military support to America will bring. At a Cabinet meeting Sept. 18, some ministers counseled restraint against any “hasty” decision amid growing concern about a war in Afghanistan and the possibility that assistance offered by Pakistan may cause the United States to turn a blind eye to Islamabad’s support for Kashmiri militants, The Hindu reported.
Behind these disagreements are very real problems India will face once the U.S. operation starts and American forces enter the country. India is home to more Muslims than is Pakistan. An even bigger problem than the threat from extremists is the possibility that mainstream Muslim religious leaders and political organizations will turn against the government because of its military assistance to the United States. These mainstream parties and popular figures could lead millions of Indian Muslims in a civil war.
Syed Bukhari, the imam of the largest mosque in India, signaled such a reaction when he recently said any U.S. attack on the “innocent people” of Afghanistan “will be treated as an attack on entire Muslim world” and would result in a severe backlash. “I told the prime minister that India should not allow its soil to be used by the U.S. for strikes against Afghanistan. Terrorism begets terrorism. Whatever happened in New York and Washington last Tuesday was just a reaction to the actions of United States,” Bukhari said.
