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Investigators are seeking explanations for the mid-air explosion of a Russian airliner over the Black Sea on Oct. 4. Several hypotheses – including terrorism or an accidental strike by a Ukrainian air defense missile – circulated within hours of the explosion. Moscow has room to pin this crash on any of a number of potential perpetrators, possibly manipulating the tragedy for its own ends.
A Russian airliner en route from Tel Aviv to Novosibirsk exploded and crashed into the Black Sea on Oct. 4. The chartered flight’s 11 crew members and 66 passengers – mostly Russian emigres returning for a visit – are presumed dead, and the cause of the explosion is unknown.
U.S. Defense Department officials report that U.S. satellites observed a missile launch from the Crimean Peninsula around the time of the crash, leading to speculation that the aircraft fell victim to a Ukrainian air-defense training accident. However, available data suggest the aircraft was well out of range of any Ukrainian air defense missiles, and other hypotheses explaining the crash will need to be probed. Other possible explanations include accident, terrorist activity, criminal activity, or in the extreme, political malfeasance.
At present, information surrounding the incident is limited. The Sibir Airlines Tupolev Tu-154 chartered plane exploded at 36,600 feet and plunged into the Black Sea, according to an Armenian pilot who witnessed the incident. The crash occurred about 114 miles from the Russian city of Adler and 300 miles northwest of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, according to Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations spokesman Vasili Yurchuk. Russian and Israeli sources report that among the 66 passengers were 51 Israeli citizens, the vice president of Sibir Airlines and a Russian official who had been discussing transport security with his Israeli counterparts.
Although initial speculation as to the cause of the incident turned to terrorism, the U.S. Defense Department quickly reported the satellite observation of a missile launch from the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian defense officials acknowledged they had been carrying out air defense exercises against unmanned drones but denied responsibility for the crash. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said the exercises involved tactical air defense missiles with a maximum range of 14 miles.
There is reason to believe Ukrainian troops are not to blame. Assuming the crash location given by Yurchuk is correct, the aircraft was some 270 miles from the Crimean. The longest-range surface-to-air missile system in the Ukrainian inventory, the SA-5, has a maximum range of 186 miles with a S-200D missile. Moreover, the Sibir airliner was traveling northeast, meaning it could not have been hit closer to Ukraine and continued out of range after the explosion.
If an accidental missile strike is ruled out, four possibilities remain. First, the aircraft could have suffered an accident. There are recent precedents. In July 2000, a Concorde burst into flames in mid-air and crashed in France after debris punctured its fuel tank. Tu-154s have been involved in 13 crashes during the past decade, not including the Oct. 4 incident: Eight were due to crew error, three were due to mechanical causes, one was downed by a missile in Georgia and one crashed of unknown causes on approach to landing in China.
A second possible cause of the crash, and the first that sprang to many minds in light of recent events in the United States, is terrorist action. Russian Federal Security Services and Emergency Situations Ministry officials have refused to rule out terrorist action – as apparently have Israeli officials, who closed the airport in Tel Aviv after the explosion.
Certainly there are militant groups in Israel inclined to plant a bomb on a planeload of Israelis. However, security at Israeli airports is extremely high, making it unlikely that if a bomb were responsible for the crash, it was placed on board in Tel Aviv.
Security at Novosibirsk is less stringent, however, and with Chechens and Central Asians present, it is likely there are at least some Islamic militants in that Russian city. Although Chechens would arguably target Russian citizens or even Russian cities for an airplane bombing, given the opportunity, they have previously targeted Israeli citizens and – like Uzbek militants – are loosely affiliated with al-Qaida.
A third possibility is Russian organized crime or violent business competition. Criminal networks are omnipresent in Russia, including at all levels of government and business, and their competition for wealth and power is frequently violent. It is possible that organized criminals targeted Jewish businessmen or their relatives on the airliner, or even the airline itself. Sibir Airlines is a stiff competitor of Aeroflot, which is partially controlled by Boris Berezovsky, an oligarch reputed to have connections to both organized crime and Chechen rebels.
Finally, an extreme hypothesis is that elements of the Russian government or security services were involved in the crash. Russia’s security services were alleged to be behind the bombings of apartment blocks, events that were used to justify Russia’s military return to Chechnya in 1999, though some of those bombings were later linked to organized crime.
Whether involved or not, Moscow stands to gain politically from the plane crash. Moscow has been attempting to exploit the Sept. 11 attacks and the subsequent U.S. response to improve Russia’s strategic and economic relations with the West. The Kremlin has portrayed Russia as being involved in a common struggle against Islamic extremism and has offered its support to the U.S. campaign. In return, Moscow hopes to extend its influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus and to attract Western respect and investment.
Washington is accepting Russian assistance but does not appear convinced Russia’s situation is analogous to that of the United States. It also does not seem ready to repay Moscow for the help. But the alleged bombing of a Russian airliner carrying Russian-born Israeli citizens by purported Islamic militants could help convince Israel and the United States that Russia is fully involved in a common struggle.
So soon after the crash, little evidence is available to support any of these hypotheses. It may well be that Russian officials misjudged the location of the crash and that it was well within Ukrainian missile range. The wreckage is far out to sea, making investigation difficult. If a stray Ukrainian missile is not to blame, there is room for Moscow to pin this crash on any of a number of potential perpetrators – from Chechens to organized criminals to oligarchs – making this a politically useful tragedy.
