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Opposition to the U.S. bombing campaign against Afghanistan is mounting throughout the Muslim world. In the Palestinian territories, clashes between security forces and Islamic protesters left three people dead Oct. 8. The incident has weakened Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat, forcing him to turn to radical Islamist groups to help maintain peace. Arafat’s predicament mirrors that of many other regimes in the Muslim world. His weakened position will limit his ability to negotiate with Israel and cooperate with the United States.
The U.S.-led bombing campaign against Afghanistan has triggered open clashes – some deadly – between militant Islamists and security forces throughout the Muslim world. In Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Israel and Pakistan, demonstrations have become running battles between security forces and protesters, leaving hundreds wounded or arrested.
Perhaps the deadliest clash occurred Oct. 8, when three people were killed and more than 200 wounded in Gaza City, a stronghold of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The battles reflect a growing divide in many Islamic societies between radical elements and governments. Unrest in many of these countries – fueled by poverty – could challenge the current regimes. For instance, although discord between the Palestinian Authority and supporters of radical Islamist groups has smoldered for years, the common struggle against Israel generally has kept internal tension from giving way to open conflict. The Oct. 8 clashes, however, reveal a rift that will likely widen in the coming days and could bode ill for Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat’s continued control over the territories.
In order to keep a lid on unrest, Arafat will be forced to seek cooperation from militant Islamist groups. Cutting deals with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in order to maintain peace, however, betrays Arafat’s lessening popular support and also weakens his negotiating position with Israel and the United States.
Arafat hopes Washington’s need for cooperation from Muslim nations in its anti-terrorism war will translate into U.S. pressure on Israel and better negotiating terms for the Palestinians. President George W. Bush already has said that a Palestinian state is part of the U.S. vision for resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But maintaining U.S. support for a Palestinian state is, in part, tied to Arafat’s ability to keep the territories calm.
The protest in Gaza started peacefully but turned violent when a reported 1,000 Hamas supporters jumped police barricades on their way to the Palestinian parliament building, The Jerusalem Post reported. After the shootings, Palestinian police declared a state of emergency and closed the tiny territory to foreign journalists. The next day Arafat began an inquiry into the shootings and closed all universities and schools in order to preempt more protests.
The Palestinian Authority is now cracking down on dissent across the board. On Oct. 12 the PA detained an editor of Al Esteqlal, a weekly newspaper associated with PIJ, BBC reported. The paper has a circulation of 6,000.
The Gaza Strip is a perfect breeding ground for unrest. Of the approximately 1 million Palestinians there, 70 percent live in 12 refugee camps and almost 80 percent of households surveyed for a July study live below the poverty level, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency. The 146-square-mile territory is one of the most densely populated places in the world.
Hamas, which the U.S. State Department lists as a terrorist organization, provides a number of social services in the refugee camps. This, in turn, makes the radical group popular among poorer Palestinians.
Following the shootings in Gaza, a consortium of 13 Palestinian groups – including Arafat’s Fatah faction, Hamas and PIJ – issued a statement calling for calm and unity. Even so, Arafat will find it difficult to maintain calm in the territories in the days to come. According to a poll conducted by Bir Zeit University in the West Bank, 89 percent of 1,200 respondents oppose the U.S. military campaign against Afghanistan.
This is not the first time Arafat’s security forces have killed radical Palestinians. Similar incidents occurred during clashes in the 1980s and 1990s. A guerrilla-fighter-turned-politician, Arafat himself is well-versed in the tactics of war and diplomacy and has broad experience in dealing with unrest and factional politics among the Palestinians.
The recent shootings reveal the divide between the Palestinian government and radical Islamist groups and their supporters. Arafat must walk a fine line between maintaining calm and alienating the general population. For now, he remains secure. But as unrest grows and radical groups exploit the opportunity to win converts, Arafat’s ability to survive will be sorely tested.
The position in which Arafat finds himself may be a test case for other Muslim governments. As the U.S.-led war against al-Qaida and the Taliban expands, Arafat’s ability to weather mounting opposition may provide insight into whether other Middle Eastern regimes can sustain similar opposition.
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