Saudi prince warns
Muslim clerics

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Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah warned senior Islamic leaders Nov. 14 to be cautious and avoid inflammatory remarks in their religious speeches. Facing trouble on various fronts, the royal family is closing ranks. However, the move may alienate the country's religious elite and increase opposition to Abdullah, the country's de facto leader.

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Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah warned senior Muslim leaders Nov. 14 to be cautious in their religious rhetoric and called on them to "not be emotional or provoked by others," the official Saudi daily Arab News reported Nov. 15. Abdullah exhorted the religious elite to avoid inflammatory remarks and to "weigh each word before saying it." Abdullah's comments mirror a similar warning issued by his traditional rival, Defense Minister Prince Sultan, two months ago to the country's security forces.

With Islamic radicalism growing and Saudi-U.S. relations strained, the royal family is coalescing against trouble on various fronts. This suggests they have at least momentarily put aside internal rivalries for the sake of political survival. But Abdullah's warning may also alienate one of his key bases of support and undercut his political clout in the long run.

The warning does not represent an irreparable breach with Saudi Arabia's religious leadership. But it is the first time Abdullah publicly has tried to rein in the mainstream religious elite. It also demonstrates the royal family's growing fear of political dissent and serves notice that fueling opposition to the regime, even indirectly, will not be tolerated.

Among the kingdom's religious leaders at the meeting were the Grand Mufti, the minister of justice, the minister of Islamic affairs, the chief and deputy chief of the Commission for Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice and several members of the Council of Senior Islamic Scholars.

As a religious monarchy, Saudi Arabia's government tries to balance the state's cooperation with the secular West with its strict religious society. For example, Saudi Arabia has pushed for admittance to the World Trade Organization since 1996 but has not joined because it has yet to resolve some trade issues that conflict with the kingdom's religious requirements.

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Complicating the secular versus religious dilemma is a complex web of tribal affiliations and loyalties. Originally divided into warring tribes, Saudi Arabia was united in 1932 by Abdul Aziz al Saud, father of King Fahd, who is officially the current ruler, as well as Prince Abdullah and Prince Sultan. Abdullah, known for his personal piety, relies on support from the country's religious elite as leverage in countering his rivals – the faction of the royal family led by King Fahd and Prince Sultan.

Abdullah became Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler after King Fahd had a stroke in 1995 and has tried to distance the kingdom from dependence on Western allies, especially the United States. Abdullah hoped to reduce what was perceived as Washington's inordinate influence over Saudi foreign and domestic policy, a perception stemming partly from the basing of several thousand U.S. soldiers on Saudi soil.

The U.S. war in Afghanistan has revived the debate over Riyadh's close cooperation with Washington. Immediately before the launching of air strikes, several Saudi clerics condemned the anticipated U.S. actions and criticized the royal family for working with the United States.

Abdullah's recent warning to religious leaders comes as the royal family prepares for a difficult time. Besides the situation in Afghanistan and the strain placed on Saudi-U.S. relations by the Sept. 11 terrorist strikes, Riyadh is suffering from a substantial drop in oil revenue due to the reduced global demand for energy.

Moreover, many analysts expect Saudi Arabia will launch a price war with Russia, and this would reduce oil revenue even further. As a virtual welfare state, Saudi Arabia could see a significant rise in political unrest should government revenues –- and by extension government spending – fall dramatically.

In his speech Nov. 14, Abdullah said that "we are now passing through critical days, and our duty requires that we be mindful," the Associated Press reported. For the usually cautious Saudi leadership, the recent statements are a glaring admission of troubled times.

Issuing warnings to his religious support base puts Abdullah in a difficult position. The presence of Prince Sultan at the meeting clearly communications that the royal brothers are now working in close coordination.

Muffling Saudi Arabia's mainstream religious leaders may only encourage more hard-line opposition to Abdullah's leadership by forcing more moderate leaders underground. Moreover, taking stances that could alienate a key support base may leave Abdullah more reliant upon his brother Sultan as well as on the defense minister's allies in the United States.

Abdullah's effort to moderate the situation, though, could backfire and have devastating consequences for his legitimacy among his own supporters, especially the country's more religiously hard-line factions. Once he weathers the current, the crown prince may find his political clout eroded and his position as the country's heir apparent in jeopardy.

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