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Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky reversed his party’s traditional anti-U.S. stance Dec. 13, rewriting its platform to remove criticism of Western policy. This is the most recent development indicating that President Vladimir Putin has been wholly successful in bringing his often chaotic country firmly under control. The president will now be able to pursue whatever foreign and domestic policy he wishes without fear of backlash.
The Bush administration formally notified the Russian government Dec. 13 it would unilaterally withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty. Despite being one of Russia’s most virulent anti-U.S. politicians, Vladimir Zhirinovsky reserved criticism of the move and said Washington was “entitled” to withdraw. He also successfully rewrote his party’s platform Dec. 13, removing all trace of anti-Western sentiment and hailing a new alliance between Russia and the United States.
These two events highlight the seriousness of Putin’s new pro-Western foreign policy initiatives. But just as importantly, Zhirinovsky’s about-face indicates that Putin’s political hold on a country known for violent upheaval is finally secure, allowing him to rule without significant opposition until at least the next Duma elections in 2003.
This is excellent news for Washington, at least for now. Since Sept. 11, Putin has turned traditional Russian foreign policy on its head, substituting confrontation with the United States for cooperation. The Russian president, who previously threatened to pull out of every U.S.-Russia disarmament treaty if the Bush administration withdrew from the ABM treaty, said Dec. 13 that Washington’s decision would not affect Moscow’s security.
A secure Putin will be able to push his country even closer to the West, holding out the prospect for real integration into Western structures. But if he does not get what he wants from such cooperation, Putin could just as easily reverse course and lead a united Russia in another direction.
Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party of Russia has long served as the funnel for the reactionary and xenophobic portion of the Russian polity. The politician himself is well known for his rather inflammatory statements, such as proposing that Russia use giant fans to blow nuclear waste into the Baltic states, march its army into Pakistan and India to gain a warm water port and redivide Poland between Moscow and Berlin.
On the subject of the United States, Zhirinovsky has predicted that the U.S. economy will collapse within 15 years, called for heavily arming U.S. foes such as Iraq and North Korea and accused the U.S. government of planning to invade Central Asia. He also has criticized Putin’s government for its recent overtures to Washington. Despite his rather off-color statements, Zhirinovsky and his party have consistently maintained representation in the Duma, including gaining 17 seats in the 1999 elections.
Regardless of whether he has genuinely changed his anti-West political leanings, the recent platform shift indicates that Zhirinovsky has at least tacitly accepted the most controversial aspects of Putin’s new foreign policy thrust. This acceptance, even if it was made through clenched teeth, signals that Putin has been successful in harnessing Russia’s political winds.
Other power centers already have been brought into line. One of the most powerful parties in the country’s political spectrum, Fatherland-All Russia, merged with Putin’s own Unity party Dec. 1, forming the All-Russian Unity and Fatherland party. The unwieldy name doesn’t hide two simple facts: Putin dominates Russia’s entire political center and now controls the largest Russian political movement.
Despite the president’s somewhat authoritarian bent, Russia’s liberals also broadly support him because of his new pro-Western foreign policy. That leaves only the communists as a viable opposition, and they have little sway so long as Putin pays pensions and salaries on time, which he has.
Putin’s influence and support reaches far beyond the Duma. Despite his rather bland appearance, and a foreign policy totally at odds with any seen in Russia in years past, Putin retains the public’s respect. The oligarchs, despite their ongoing clashes with Putin, are largely supportive of presidential directives to pursue membership in the World Trade Organization and steal market share from OPEC.
Putin’s grip on the country is as secure as his 80 percent approval rating. He controls Gazprom, the country’s natural gas monopoly, through his ally and company CEO Alexei Miller. Natural gas supplies 52 percent of Russia’s electricity needs and remains Russia’s most valuable export.
Putin also has used state-influenced firms such as Gazprom to assert control over, or completely close down, all major media outlets. In doing so, he has silenced the tools the oligarchs used to discredit his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. Putin has even shown he has the political strength to fire military commanders by the bunch, including dismissing most of the Northern Fleet command Dec. 3.
For now, the only possible threat to Putin is budgetary. Twenty-three percent of federal revenues came from oil tariffs and taxes in 2001. With a price war with OPEC shaping up, he will need to get by with less.
He already has taken steps to mitigate the dearth of income. His government has finished a budget rewrite, has allowed a mild devaluation to stretch oil income further and has pursued debt forgiveness negotiations with Russia’s creditors. The government also has made vague statements about Russia’s upcoming oil production levels, which have been sufficient to buoy oil prices even as the nation brings new production capabilities online.
This all adds up to one very secure president. Unlike Yeltsin, whose policies were constantly thwarted by oligarchs, generals, intelligence officers, bureaucrats and popular opposition, Putin’s only major worry is the bureaucrats, and they can hardly oust him. That grants the president the leverage and freedom he needs to implement whatever policies he deems necessary.
For now, that means pursuing the pro-Western path he laid out in the aftermath of Sept. 11. So long as the West holds out the prospect of real payoffs, Putin will have little problem keeping his country united behind him. His calm acceptance of the news that U.S. President Bush intends to abrogate the ABM treaty indicates that for now Putin retains full control.
But if promises such as debt forgiveness, WTO membership or the transformation of NATO from a military alliance into a political one do not materialize, Putin will feel forced to lead his country into a new and far more familiar direction ? confrontation with the West, especially the United States. And if he does, his country will be united behind him.
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Let’s curb the kangaroo court of anonymous sources
Tim Graham