India seen as stronger
against Pakistan

December 29, 2001

As Pakistan and India position troops, missiles and aircraft along their 1,100-mile common border in what could become the fourth war between them, historians note that in the past Islamabad has typically come up short against a stronger Indian military.

Though both nations now claim to be nuclear powers, there is some disagreement as to how capable either is of launching nuclear weapons against the other.

Therefore, experts note, any conflict would likely be fought conventionally, and in that event, India holds distinct military advantages in terms of manpower, modern aircraft, land combat systems and naval assets.

History of conflict

The Indian subcontinent was partitioned shortly after World War II ended, in 1947, with its independence from Great Britain, forming the nations of India and Pakistan. But almost immediately, both nations plunged into war over mutual claims in the Jammu-Kashmir regions.

Kashmir, about twice the size of Virginia and located in northwest India, has been the focus of two of the three conflicts, because absolute sovereignty over this particular region was unresolved after Britain left.

The first conflict began in 1947, when Muslim subjects revolted and were supported by Pakistani troops. The conflict dragged on through much of 1948, as the Hindu ruler of the region appealed to India for assistance, agreeing to cede the area to India in return. New Delhi moved quickly to consolidate its position in Kashmir and was successful in pushing the mostly Pakistani volunteer forces back.

Conflicts also arose in the Punjab and in Bengal, but the war ended after a United Nations-brokered truce was put into effect Jan. 1, 1949. Post-conflict negotiations between India and Pakistan began and lasted until 1954 without resolving the Kashmir problem. Pakistan controlled part of the area, Azad, while India held most of the territory overall. New Delhi annexed the area it controlled in 1957.

Pakistani soldiers pose in front of a captured Indian tank during the 1965 war.

The second conflict broke out in April 1965 as the U.S. was gearing up for its own prolonged Asian war against communist North Vietnam. This time, fighting broke out in the Rann of Kachchh, a sparsely inhabited region along the West Pakistan-India border. By August, it had spread to Kashmir and to the Punjab.

In September, Pakistani and Indian troops crossed the partition line between the two countries and launched air assaults on each other’s cities. By then, China was threatening to intervene on behalf of Pakistan, which would have “internationalized” the conflict. But pressure by a united Soviet Union and the U.S. government kept Beijing out of the fight and led to an eventual cease-fire in January 1966, brokered by Moscow.

Pakistani troops claimed early victory, but Indian forces, in a three-pronged attack, were able to stabilize earlier losses. After the cease-fire, the armies of both countries withdrew to pre-August lines.

In 1971 came Pakistan’s biggest military defeat, and it came amid a crippling civil war. The West Pakistan army was pitted against the forces of East Pakistan, which in turn forced some 10 million East Pakistan Bengalis to flee to India. When Pakistan attacked Indian airfields in Kashmir, India attacked both East and West Pakistan. India managed to occupy the eastern half, which declared its independence on Dec. 6, 1971.

After Pakistan’s defeat, a U.N.- and major power-brokered cease-fire took effect in mid-December. Pakistan lost its eastern half, an army of 100,000 soldiers and was thrown into political turmoil. A million people had died.

Tensions were alleviated by the Shimla accord of 1972 and by Pakistan’s recognition of Bangladesh in 1974.

However, as the current situation bears out, tensions have periodically recurred. In the 1990s, serial clashes between Indian army troops and Muslim separatists in Kashmir worsened relations between Islamabad and New Delhi, as India blamed Pakistan for aiding the Muslims. The series of battles killed an estimated 30,000 people by 1996.

In May 1999, India launched a series of air strikes against armed Muslim insurgents that New Delhi said had infiltrated India’s portion of Kashmir. Pakistan responded, and later in the month claimed to have shot down two Indian Air Force fighters. Fighting continued until fall of 1999.

How the forces match up

In terms of manpower, technology, versatility and overall capability, the Indian armed forces hold distinct advantages over Pakistan.

With its 1.2 million man active duty army and a population of over 1 billion, clearly the manpower advantage lies with India. New Delhi also fields a force of about 416,000 Home Guard paramilitary troops, as well as 400,000 State Armed Police and 100,000 other paramilitary personnel. Pakistan’s army numbers are around 550,000, with a reserve of a half million men.

India is buying 310 of the versatile Russian-built T-90 main battle tanks, considered superior to Pakistan’s Al-Khalid and Russian-built T-80 MBTs.

The Indian Army, meanwhile, can field around 4,000 tanks, compared to Pakistan’s 2,500. According to an assessment by WND content partner Stratfor.com, a Texas-based military and intelligence firm, India’s recent emphasis on acquiring more modern tanks fits well into its defense strategy in any conflict – but especially one against Pakistan.

“The priority India is giving to tanks underlines what its strategy would be in any war with Pakistan: to deal a crushing blow that would disable Pakistan’s military capabilities,” Stratfor analysts said in a Feb. 22 report.

“In the event of war with Pakistan, India could send tank columns through the Thar Desert area and into communication centers around Rahimyar Khan, Bahawalpur and Sukkur in central Pakistan,” the report said. “By reaching the Indus River, they would isolate major Pakistani forces and operation centers in the north, including in Islamabad.

“Such an attack, aided by India’s air force, on Pakistan’s vital communications centers could prove deadly for Pakistani forces at wartime,” analysts concluded.

India’s naval assets are similarly superior. According to current data, New Delhi’s fleet numbers about 100 warships, including one aircraft carrier and a naval air capability. Pakistan, meanwhile, has a semi-modern naval force but one that cannot compete numerically or technologically with India.

Indian Su-30 MKI fighter, imported from Russia, is seen as a superior combat jet vs. current Pakistani fighter capabilities.

Combat aircraft capabilities also differ significantly, mostly in terms of a numerical advantage for India. Pakistan has about 521 combat aircraft, including 32 U.S.-built F-16s and Chinese-built F-7s, while India can field about 950 aircraft, including 30 modern Russian-built Su-30 MKI fighters, MiG-29s and older Su-27s.