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Military sources in Taiwan reportedly have said that Taipei and New Delhi are exploring military cooperation. These elements apparently decided to leak the information to the media in hopes that it will help Taiwan regain relevance as a priority for the United States. If successful, renewed attention from Washington will help Taiwan avoid the slow reintegration into China that is resulting from deepening economic relations between the two.
Taiwan’s Chinese-language United Daily News reported Jan. 2 that “reliable sources” within the military are saying that Taiwan and India have exchanged military intelligence and that armed forces chiefs on both sides recently have met. The Indian government has not confirmed or denied the report.
The leak appears to be an attempt by elements within the military to provoke hostility from the Chinese government in the hope that this will put Taiwan back on Washington’s global agenda. Though the strategy is not without risk, these elements in Taiwan likely view the move as the best option to keep the country from completely falling under China’s umbrella of influence.
The timing of the leak comes after the global war on terrorism has caused China and Taiwan to drop off the U.S. radar of importance. This is a major change from the early part of 2001, when tensions between Beijing and Washington were near their peak over the spy plane incident. Taiwan’s visibility as a U.S. ally increased, especially with the Bush administration promising a new weapons package and pledging to support Taipei from any Chinese aggression.
But the focus on China, and consequently Taiwan, has shifted since the Sept. 11 attacks. The United States is placing its attention elsewhere, while China has been busy with anti-corruption efforts and integration into the World Trade Organization. The reduced threat from China has left Taiwan without complete “big brother” support from the United States.
Furthermore, since the dissipation of the most recent tensions between China and Taiwan due to the island’s 2000 presidential elections, Taipei has permitted a steady increase in economic relations with Beijing. Most recently the Cabinet ruled that 122 Taiwanese products can be manufactured in China, which has virtually the cheapest labor in Asia.
Although such cooperation is in its infancy, China has expressed its hope to create a free trade zone with Taiwan that would also include Macau and Hong Kong – both of whom have rejoined China. Though Taipei hopes that heightened economic ties will help revitalize its struggling economy, it also knows such links give Beijing a powerful lever to pressure Taiwan.
The threat that increased economic integration will reduce Taiwan’s independence has led elements in Taiwan’s military to covertly call for re-establishing some degree of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The chosen tactic of leaking the claims of military cooperation with India may very well have the desired effect.
According to the United Daily News, the military officials said that “Taiwan’s military cooperation with India is like an ambush at the backdoor of the communist mainland,” and that “India seeks cooperation with Taiwan because it wants Taiwan to serve as a ‘thorn,’ so that mainland China would feel thorns at both sides.”
This would not be the first time Taiwan has used the threat of China to its own benefit, especially since Taipei’s only true global significance comes from its ability to counter Beijing. Although the United States adheres to the official “one China” policy, it sent two carrier battle groups to defend Taiwan in 1996, following the testing of missiles by Beijing in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan also has called upon Japan to step up its financial involvement in the country to counter China’s growing economic influence.
However, with tensions between Taipei and Beijing fairly low, Taiwan has lost much of its global leverage. Floating the prospect of military cooperation with India, in hopes of angering China, allows factions within Taiwan to accomplish two goals with one stroke.
China has expressed its support of Pakistan in the current standoff between Islamabad and New Delhi. Knowledge that India participates in the sharing of military intelligence with Taiwan, whom China views as its “renegade province,” could cause more aggressive rhetoric from the Chinese government against Taiwan or India. In either case, a hostile China would certainly attract the attention of the United States.
With the threat of China once again a U.S. priority, Taiwan’s importance would rise as well. Secondly, a refocused Washington will not easily allow China to use economic cooperation to force a de facto reintegration of Taiwan. The United States will prevent China from making any declarative statements regarding its control over Taiwan.
Officials within Taiwan apparently hope this dangerous game will end in their favor and that the United States will resume protecting Taiwan from China. But the strategy will prove risky for Taiwan, even if only a few elements of the military put it in motion.
The United States still may not decide to give the issue its attention at this time. Should this happen, China would gain the upper hand in relations across the Strait, because Washington will have signaled that it might not come to the immediate aid of Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression.
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