Pak election laws hamstring Islamists

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Pakistani political parties are positioning themselves for elections this summer, the first since President Pervez Musharraf seized power more than two years ago, and new election law will make it more difficult for Islamist parties to win seats, giving Musharraf a measure of breathing room and more stability for his government.

Political parties in Pakistan are gearing up for the country's first elections since Musharraf took over the government in a military coup almost three years ago. Protesters from the Pakistan People's Party demanded Feb. 2 that the government allow exiled party leader and potential Musharraf rival Benazir Bhutto to return to Pakistan.

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All the parties are maneuvering to adjust to a recent election-reform law announced by Musharraf in January. The law appears designed to limit the power of fundamentalist Islamic groups in parliament while slowly reintegrating the nation's traditional political parties. Limiting the power of fundamentalist parties will add a level of stability to Pakistan's domestic politics and will set the stage for Musharraf to eventually step down from power.

The new law adds to the lower house 40 more seats for women, who already had 20, and 25 for technocrats such as current and former business and government officials. It also takes away the 10 seats allotted for Christians, Hindus and other religious minorities, but it will allow them to run as ordinary candidates, a decision they have been requesting for years. Another 58 general seats were added to the lower house as well, bringing the total number of parliament seats to 350. Finally, Musharraf added a controversial provision that all candidates must have a bachelor's degree or higher.

Just as Musharraf spent years filling the army with loyalists, he now appears to be trying to do the same thing with the parliament. Although he can't simply promote allies at will, he can adjust the election rules in his favor.

The recent provisions are an obvious swipe at Islamist parties, many of which still have considerable political sway. Relatively few women – especially those with the power to win at the polls – are fans of hardcore Islam, nor are many technocrats. And non-Muslim religious minorities will likely win more than the 10 seats to which they were originally restricted. Assuming that Christians and Hindus can win 15 seats, that would give Musharraf a 100-seat bloc – or nearly one-third of the parliament – that is actively opposed to Muslim fundamentalists.

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Requiring college degrees would make it even tougher for such fundamentalists, but that ruling is already in question simply because several rural areas in Pakistan can't field qualified candidates.

Musharraf has said that he intends to stay in power perhaps up to five more years, in hopes that the country by then will achieve more economic and political stability. By reducing the political influence of the fundamentalists, whose actions currently keep out foreign investment and endanger the central government, Musharraf can help ensure that if and when he gives up power, the country will be in what he considers the right hands.

Adding women and technocrats to the parliament will also boost Pakistan's appeal to foreign-aid donors and non-governmental organizations that want regimes to be representative as well as effective. At the same time, these candidates will likely be less ideological than the career politicians that tend to dominate Pakistani politics.

Musharraf must now dive back into Pakistan's political scene. Although the new parliament will have relatively little power, the parties that Musharraf sidelined when he took control of the leadership will use the institution as a pulpit for challenging his right to rule. More important in the long term, the new parliament is expected to reform parts of Pakistan's constitution.

Musharraf's potential rivals include the PPP, which is probably the most powerful single party in the country. And several religious parties have formed a political alliance called Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal.

In an ironic twist, Musharraf, who doesn't have a party of his own, appears to be forming a political alliance with the fragments of the secular Pakistan Muslim League, the party of the man Musharraf forced out of office. And the president also wields a large stick – the legal ability to investigate and convict current and former politicians for corruption. There is no shortage of corrupt politicians in any of Pakistan's parties, which gives Musharraf the ability to choose when and where to apply legal pressure.

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