CIA: China still threat
to U.S., Taipei

February 9, 2002

Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet has told Congress that China remains a threat to the United States and Taiwan, and that the Asian giant has worked hard over the past year to become a more powerful regional player.

“Over the past year, Beijing’s military training exercises have taken on an increasingly real-world focus, emphasizing rigorous practice in operational capabilities and improving the military’s actual ability to use force,” Tenet told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Wednesday.

Noting that Taiwan was still the focus of China’s military buildup and modernization, Tenet said his agency believes that while the Sept. 11 attacks “changed the context of China’s approach” to Washington, it didn’t change Beijing’s overall goal of achieving military superiority over its smaller neighbor.

China also seeks to build enough military power to at least be able to prevent the U.S. from successfully defending Taiwan in the event of a future conflict. China has repeatedly said it would reunify with Taiwan by force if necessary.

Chinese SLBM – sub-launched ballistic missile – development continues, as does work on a new Chinese-made class of nuclear submarines.

The buildup “is aimed not only at Taiwan but also at increasing the risk to the United States itself in any future Taiwan contingency,” Tenet said. “China also continues to upgrade and expand the conventional short-range ballistic missile force it has arrayed against Taiwan.”

Tenet told the panel that recent moderate statements from Chinese leaders belie Beijing’s “central” theme of reunification with Taiwan.

“Cross-strait relations remain at a stalemate, but there are competing trend lines behind that,” Tenet said of Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen’s tempered statement last week regarding integrated economics between Beijing and Taipei.

“Chinese leaders seemed somewhat complacent last year that the growing economic integration across the Taiwan Strait was boosting Beijing’s long-term leverage,” he said.

“The results of Taiwan’s legislative elections in December, however, strengthened President Chen Shui-bian’s hand domestically,” Tenet added. “Although Beijing’s latest policy statement inviting members of Chen’s party to visit the mainland was designed as a conciliatory gesture, Beijing might resume a more confrontational stance if it suspects him of using his electoral mandate to move toward independence.”

In separate testimony before the Senate committee, Defense Intelligence Agency chief Vice Adm. Thomas Wilson said China’s combat capability would increase over the next decade.

Chinese-built DF-31 ICBMs with enough range – 5,000 miles – to strike the western U.S. Beijing is also developing a DF-41 model, with an anticipated range of 12,000 miles.

“By 2005-2010, China’s conventional force modernization will provide an increasingly credible military threat for short-duration attacks against Taiwan,” said Wilson, adding that despite the modernization efforts, he is less concerned about a China-Taiwan confrontation than last year.

Meanwhile, Taiwanese officials say its military and domestic policy agendas have taken a back seat to other U.S. interests since the Sept. 11 attacks, as Washington focuses attention on its war against terror.

“Congressmen said they also sympathize with and support our position, but they explained to us that the State Department is not so forceful, not because they are against us, but because there are too many priorities above us,” said Peng Ming-min, leader of a Taiwanese delegation at the National Prayer Breakfast Thursday.

Other countries besides the U.S. and Taiwan may be increasingly concerned about China’s military modernization.

According to Stratfor.com, a private intelligence firm and WND content partner, India is also beefing up its own military capabilities as a direct result of perceived Chinese threats.

Indian Navy aircraft carrier INS Viraat. New Delhi is seeking to purchase a Kiev-class carrier from Russia, as well as begin its own carrier construction.

“India is capitalizing on growing U.S. interest in South Asia’s security environment to push for rapid expansion of its military capabilities,” Stratfor, in a report published Wednesday, said.

“India’s military buildup will threaten China, its main competitor for power in this region,” as New Delhi seeks to modernize its nuclear naval capabilities to form the third leg of a “triad” that also consists of air-launched and land-based nuclear weapons.

“In the short run, India’s acquisitions will certainly influence Pakistani military calculations. But in the longer term, it is China that will be forced to confront this naval challenge,” said the report. “China’s moves to counter India could raise tensions across the region, as well as with the United States.”