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The CIA has completed a classified report that warns of instability in Saudi Arabia.
U.S. government sources said the report is the first in about five years and reflects the state of the kingdom in the wake of the Sept. 11 suicide attacks on New York and Washington. The sources said the Bush administration has distributed the report to the State Department and other agencies, including Congress. The report is not intended for public release.
The 25-page National Intelligence Estimate by the CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence does not break new ground on the Saudis, the sources said. But they said the report reviews the internal and external threats against the kingdom as well as the future of Riyadh’s ties with Washington.
A key concern raised in the report is the issue of Saudi succession. The sources quoted the report as saying that the regime does not appear to have resolved who will replace the ailing King Fahd. The senior members of the royal family range from ages 75 to 80.
The succession struggle centers on Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz and his half-brother Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan. Abdullah has taken over the daily duties of the crown prince and regards Sultan as excessively pro-American and corrupt. Abdullah is said to be pressing for the succession of Riyadh governor Prince Salman Bin Abdul Aziz, about 15 years younger than the 75-year-old Sultan and with a wide domestic power base.
Another concern raised by the report is the influence of the clergy on the Saudi regime. The report regards the clergy as the main pillar of legitimacy for the regime, the result of which has been the isolation of the royal family from an increasingly modern Saudi middle class.
“The House of Saud is depicted as ‘the boy in the bubble,'” a U.S. intelligence source quoted by the Boston Globe said. “What that means is the kingdom is too isolated and too coddled. It has become an entity that requires insulation from the biogens in its environment because if it were exposed to them it would become deathly ill.”
The Saudi middle class has been hard hit by the huge Saudi budget deficits that stem from low oil prices. The new class of merchants have also privately complained of endemic corruption by the 30,000-member royal family, headed by 3,000 princes.
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