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The Arab League summit in Beirut has turned into a political nightmare for the Arab world and for Saudi Arabia in particular. The fallout from the fiasco will be far-ranging – influencing everything from the war in Israel to the potential U.S. campaign against Iraq to chances for future intra-Arab cooperation.
Before the March 27-28 conference even began, almost half of the Arab nations’ leaders said they would skip it, and others – including Palestinian and Saudi officials – withdrew shortly after the meeting started.
The debacle will have ramifications for both regional players and external actors such as the United States that are heavily involved in the region. The fallout will be greatest in Saudi Arabia and Israel, but other states – including Iraq and Egypt – will feel it as well. Both the winners and the losers will be jockeying in the days ahead either to recover from the damage or to exploit it.
The summit was designed to address two key issues facing the Arab world: Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah’s call for Arab peace with Israel in exchange for Israel’s withdrawal to its 1967 borders and, unofficially, a potential U.S. military campaign against Iraq.
Riyadh’s initiative was primarily a tool for deflecting U.S. pressure on the kingdom to cooperate in rooting out suspected al-Qaida militants and supporting a strike against Iraq. But the boycott by so many Arab states suggests that Vice President Dick Cheney’s regional tour earlier this month was more successful than expected. By not backing the Saudi plan, the Arabs shredded its credibility.
The summit’s failure is a major political victory for many players, but especially for Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat.
In recent months Palestinians have gained both the momentum and the tactics to stand up to Israel and have resisted repeated demands by Israeli and U.S. officials for a cease-fire. Now Arafat can point to the summit and tell both Israel and Washington that the only way to achieve peace is to deal directly with him – not through an external Arab mediator. This will give Arafat greater leverage when dealing with both Israel and the United States.
Ironically, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon also scored a victory. Sharon has said repeatedly that Israel should not negotiate with the Palestinians until it has broken their will to fight, but he has been under enormous pressure from Washington to ease a military stranglehold on the Palestinian territories. Now he can tell Washington that because there is no peace proposal to discuss, the military option is the only option.
Even Egypt scored significant political points. For years Saudi Arabia has tried to usurp Cairo’s traditional role as leader of the Arab world. But the deliberate boycott of the summit by so many Arab heads of state clearly illustrates that Riyadh is not the leader it pretends to be. This leaves the field open for Egypt to regain its position.
Saudi Arabia is the biggest loser. In opening the summit, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah called on Arab governments to back his plan for “normal ties” with Israel in return for the creation of a Palestinian state and Israel’s withdrawal from the occupied territories. Given the summit’s low turnout, however, Abdullah’s proposal was dead in the water. His loss of face will reduce Saudi Arabia’s political clout with the rest of the world. The humiliation may also trigger an internal backlash as Saudi citizens may feel ashamed of their leaders and begin criticizing them more openly.
Above all, the failure of the summit leaves Saudi Arabia right where it started before Abdullah dropped his peace proposal bombshell. Riyadh will now have to find another means of fending off U.S. pressure to crack down on suspected al-Qaida and back a U.S. campaign against Iraq.
Another casualty from the chaos is that most elusive of ideas, Arab unity. The descent of the Arab League summit into backbiting and the pullouts one after another are an unusual public display of discord among Arab leaders. Saving face is an important part of the political culture – and even though Arab unity is more a concept than reality, complete and utter indifference to political politesse is almost unheard of. The blatant rejection of the Saudi initiative will likely prevent intra-regional cooperation in the short term.
Overall the summit was a disaster. The consequences will be just as ugly
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