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A Palestinian suicide bomber blew himself up on a city bus in the northern Israeli city of Haifa today, killing at least eight people in the first successful suicide attack since the Israeli offensive in the West Bank began in earnest March 29. The militant group Hamas later took responsibility for the bombing.
From the Palestinian point of view, demonstrating that the Israelis had not completely destroyed their ability to carry out attacks inside Israel was crucial for two reasons.
First, it showed that in spite of Israel’s best military efforts, the Palestinians retain the ability to hurt the country. Given the impending negotiations driven by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s visit this week, it was a critical move. Negotiating with Powell in a circumstance in which they were completely helpless was something the Palestinians badly wanted to avoid.
Second, the attack is likely to have a political effect inside of Israel as well. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon yesterday reshuffled his “kitchen cabinet,” moving Foreign Minister Shimon Peres out and moving more conservatives in. In addition to raising questions about the viability of his government, Sharon was clearly rejecting Peres’ more restrained views on the current military operation.
One of the criticisms of the Israeli offensive in the West Bank is that, from a purely military standpoint, it would not by itself end the suicide bombings. Sharon’s argument for the operation has been that the political price that has to be paid on the international front is well worth it if the suicide bombings are ended. This has been the conceptual glue that held the operation and his political support together.
The Haifa bombing was intended to challenge that conceptual framework, and in this it has succeeded. It both strengthens the Palestinian bargaining position and potentially weakens support for Sharon’s policies among Israelis.
The counterargument that Sharon will make will be that the decline in attacks shows that the concept is sound, and that the bombing demonstrates that the operation cannot be ended yet, as all Palestinian capabilities have not been destroyed. He also will argue that a single bombing does not demonstrate that the Palestinians retain the ability to conduct a more widescale terror campaign.
Therefore, the Palestinians will attempt to mount additional attacks if they are able. The difficulty of Israeli intelligence to penetrate the Palestinian cells remains the key element. The broadside attack has certainly limited the bombing campaign, but it is now unclear whether it has ended it.
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