Israel preparing for Gaza campaign?

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As Israel's offensive in the West Bank continues, it appears that a similar campaign may be undertaken in the Gaza Strip. But there are a number of considerations Israel must weigh, such as whether opening another military front will unduly diffuse its military focus and forces.

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Despite Israel's gains in intelligence and a near complete lockdown of the Palestinian territories, at least six people were killed and 60 wounded in Jerusalem today by a female Palestinian suicide bomber. The woman – reportedly from the Jenin refugee camp, the site of fierce battles between Israeli military forces and Palestinian militants – blew herself up at a crowded bus stop on the city's main Jaffa Road. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, a militant faction of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement, claimed responsibility for the blast, the second suicide attack in Israel in three days.

Two weeks into the Israeli military offensive in the Palestinian territories, the West Bank remains a flashpoint. Yet Israel has not matched its campaign in the West Bank – aimed at destroying Palestinian militant infrastructure – with a similar one in the Gaza Strip. It makes sense that Israel would prefer to deal with the territories in stages, but a number of recent incidents, as well as the logic of the Israeli campaign, suggest that Gaza will be the focus of an upcoming Israeli military offensive.

For the moment Israel is working on consolidating gains in the West Bank. At the same time, it is increasingly concerned about an explosion of violence along the northern border with Lebanon. Israel has responded to recent Katyusha rocket fire from the Islamic Hezbollah militant group in south Lebanon with a combination of remarkably restrained retaliatory air strikes and a series of diplomatic initiatives backed by both the United States and Russia. Yet Hezbollah continues to launch rockets across the border. This will lead Israel to weigh very carefully the opening of another front in Gaza.

From the Palestinian viewpoint, another flashpoint on the northern border or in Gaza would help diffuse Israel's military focus and perhaps even push the Israel Defense Forces to cut their offensive in the territories. The Palestinians are worried that the longer the IDF keeps the West Bank under lock and key, the greater intelligence Israel will gain about the militant operational infrastructure and capabilities.

At the start of the Israeli offensive in the West Bank, military forces also moved into Gaza and divided the tiny territory into three parts, locking down transit between the sectors. The tactic is intended to create three smaller areas of responsibility and thus make containing the local Palestinian populations easier.

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Besides sectioning off Gaza, Israeli military forces also moved into some Palestinian-controlled areas there. On April 9 three IDF tanks and a bulldozer moved into the area of Deir el-Balah in central Gaza next to an Israeli settlement at Kisufim. Israeli tanks also took up positions near Beit Hanun, just east of the Erez crossing between Israel and northern Gaza.

But both those areas are now potential flashpoints. A shootout April 10 between Palestinian gunmen and Israeli security forces left one Palestinian dead near Kisufim. On April 11, a Palestinian gunman killed an Israeli border guard during a shootout at the Erez crossing. The gunman also died and six others – three Israelis and three Palestinians – were wounded. The Islamic Jihad took responsibility for the attack.

The spate of shootings comes amid growing concerns that Israel is preparing for an offensive in Gaza. Local news agencies quoting Palestinian sources report that panic buying among residents in the area has led to a shortage of necessities such as flour, as Palestinians prepare themselves for an offensive similar to the one in the West Bank.

In addition to distracting the IDF from its West Bank sweeps, a heightened Israeli campaign in Gaza might actually benefit Palestinian militants by bringing greater pressure to bear on Israeli politicians. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is currently in Israel and is expected to remain there until April 16. Powell is asking for a time frame from the Israelis for their expected withdrawal from the West Bank, but so far they have refused to commit to anything more specific than two or three weeks, and launching an offensive in Gaza would extend the time frame.

In fact, an operation in Gaza could take as long if not longer than the one in the West Bank. While only half the size of its eastern counterpart, Gaza has nearly as many residents. There are at least 1.1 million people in the area, which is twice the size of Washington, D.C. Conducting broad sweeps though Gaza City could take up to a week by itself.

There is also the issue of the capability of Gaza residents to resist an Israeli offensive. Given the level of guerrilla activity there over the last few months – including two successful ambushes on Israel's main Merkava battle tanks and the manufacturing of Qassam rockets for use by Hamas – resistance is likely to be as heated, echoing the recent fighting in Jenin, which has killed nearly 250 Palestinians and 23 IDF soldiers.

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