Israeli action won't end terror

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While Israel's recently announced plan to take and hold more Palestinian Authority-controlled territory as a deterrence to further suicide bombings, it actually will be a logistical nightmare for the Israeli military and will widen divisions within the Israeli government, says Stratfor, the global intelligence company.

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In reaction to a June 18 suicide bombing in Jerusalem that killed 19 people, the Cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon approved a policy to begin seizing and holding Palestinian areas. What this means exactly is still unclear, but according to an Israeli government press release, "Israel will respond to every terror attack by capturing Palestinian Authority territory, which will be held for as long as the terror continues."

The decision was made before another suicide bombing in Jerusalem killed seven people yesterday. The new policy is a massive shift in Israeli military strategy and, if fully implemented, will impact every aspect of Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Sharon's plan seems to be aimed at taking the fight to the Palestinians in what would be in effect another offensive like the one in the West Bank March 29 to May 10. The threat of Israeli seizures of Palestinian lands is meant also to deter future suicide attacks.

But if the government is serious about responding to every suicide bombing by taking and holding Palestinian territory, it could be setting the stage for a full-scale reoccupation, leaving Israeli forces with no exit strategy. The plan also may aggravate divisions within Israel over how to respond to Palestinian suicide attacks. Finally, its implementation will be difficult – if not impossible – and will raise the level of bloodshed between the two sides rather than help end the fighting.

The scope of such an operation would be daunting. Even if Israel concentrates solely on the West Bank and leaves the Gaza Strip alone, its resources will be stretched to the limits if it tries to take and hold areas that are now under Palestinian Authority control (known as Areas A and B). Under the 1993 Oslo accords, the PA has full or joint control of about 40 percent of the West Bank and 65 percent of the Gaza Strip. Area A would be the target for Israeli territory seizures, as this region is where the PA has full security and civilian control.

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Areas A and B together total 6,220 square kilometers (2,400 square miles), almost twice the size of Puerto Rico, with a combined population of more than 3 million Palestinians, the vast majority of whom live in the built-up urban areas. Urban fighting can be some of the bloodiest, as the battles in Jenin during the West Bank campaign clearly showed. Running battles, which lasted for days, as well as hidden explosives, left dozens of Israeli soldiers dead or wounded.

Seizing and holding territory in these areas is not necessarily beyond the capabilities of the 172,500-member Israel Defense Forces. But it would seriously strain an already weary military, which must be constantly ready for a war with its neighbors. The IDF also is responsible for patrolling the Green Line that separates the occupied territories from Israel, and for securing the Jewish state's 648 kilometers of borders with Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. The IDF already had to mobilize an additional 20,000 reservists for its offensive in the West Bank, the largest single call-up in three decades.

During that operation, and in subsequent incursions, Israeli forces entered Palestinian-controlled areas only for short periods, during which they would conduct search-and-seizure operations or destroy infrastructure before withdrawing. The government's shift in policy now will require forces to remain in Area A as well as police these regions and assume civil responsibility. As a possible first step toward occupation, Israeli troops are trucking mobile homes into Jenin, the BBC reported June 19.

Stationing troops within Area A, however, already is triggering conflict in Israel. IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz said June 19 that the IDF would not remain in the territories, Israeli daily Haaretz reported. Mofaz's statement seems a direct contradiction of Sharon's decision.

Even Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said June 19 he opposes retaking Area A, Haaretz reported. The conflict seems at least in part an issue over duration. For instance, Ben-Eliezer said that although he opposes retaking PA-controlled areas, IDF forces would still remain there for up to three weeks.

Opponents of the decision, like Knesset Labor member Haim Ramon, have called it a prelude to full-scale Israel reoccupation of the Palestinian territories, leading to an ultimate annexation. Supporters have argued that the government should regain absolute control over the areas, Haaretz reported.

The decision has caused political infighting, and the first preparations for the plan's implementation have not deterred further strikes, as evidenced by the second Jerusalem attack June 19.

Capturing PA territory, though not beyond Israel's military capabilities for short-term operations, is both a drastic and unsustainable plan for the long term. Before Oslo, Israel legally controlled all of the West Bank and Gaza. But the areas now under Palestinian control will not be reoccupied easily.

The Palestinian population has become more radicalized and militant and has decades of experience of fighting Israeli soldiers. The result of Sharon's new plan could be tough and bloody battles throughout the West Bank – and possibly even Gaza – similar to those seen in Jenin in May.

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