Iran's dissident movement gaining ground

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Pro-reform demonstrations took place this week in Iran on the anniversary of street protests that shook the regime three years ago.

While this year's protests did not approach a similar critical mass, the government's use of foreign personnel to bolster its police response raises questions about the loyalty of Iran's security services and suggests that the dissident movement is gaining ground, says Stratfor, the global intelligence company.

Several thousand Iranians defied a government ban on public protests and took to the streets of Tehran Tuesday, the anniversary of violent street protests three years ago that nearly toppled the Islamic regime. This year's demonstrations were broken up by Iranian security forces, including the Islamic fundamentalist Bassij militia, resulting in numerous injuries but so far no confirmed deaths.

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The protests were earnest but did not have the numbers necessary to threaten the regime. Of more interest, however, are the precautions the Iranian government reportedly took ahead of the anniversary, including training a large number of foreigners to act as security agents. This suggests that the regime in Tehran is on increasingly shaky ground, while the opposition movement is gaining more credibility.

Iranian opposition media sources said that the government was using foreigners – including Palestinians, Afghans and Arabs – to fill the security ranks not only in Tehran but also in provincial capitals where similar protests occurred; an assertion confirmed by Stratfor's sources. The number of foreigners who participated is unclear, but a recent story in the National Review put the total in the "thousands" and alleged that this group was made up of Palestinians and Iraqis who were undergoing paramilitary training in anticipation of the July 9 demonstrations.

As is often the case, it is not clear if this development was formally approved by the Iranian government or if it was the work of a faction within the security services. Hayat-e No, a state-run daily, suggested the latter when it quoted a security force commander as saying, "We will have to investigate the reports saying that some of the suppressive agents could not speak Farsi."

Using foreigners in the security services strongly suggests that the Iranian government, or at least a part of it, is extremely concerned about the loyalty of its regular police and security forces. Allowing foreigners to use force against Iranian citizens carries significant political costs for the government, as this would no doubt further estrange segments of the population.

But apparently there was a significant amount of concern in Tehran that Iranian police would not follow government orders to break up the demonstrations. It is unlikely that the Iranian police have become activists; rather it appears that many would have had second thoughts about attacking mostly unarmed civilians.

Such a possibility is consistent with an unconfirmed Iranian opposition report saying that about a dozen officials in Iran's Revolutionary Guard publicly announced their support for the July 9 demonstrations.

This is a new and very significant development in the ongoing political tussle within Iran. Never before has there been doubt about the loyalty of the country's law enforcement to the government. This news must be especially disturbing for Tehran. Student movements are a constant factor in almost every country and can almost always be suppressed.

But trained, armed law enforcement personnel are not as easily controlled, which makes questions about their loyalty – and the possibility that the dissident movement is making gains even among some segments of the security forces – a greater threat to the Islamic regime.

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