Psychological war over bin Laden

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Two recent conflicting reports about whether Osama bin Laden is alive or dead demonstrate that whether the terrorist actually is still breathing may be less important than how Washington and al-Qaida use the current ambiguity for psychological warfare, says Stratfor, the global intelligence company.

FBI counterterrorism chief Dale Watson said July 17 that he believes Osama bin Laden is dead, although he also said he has no evidence to support that assertion. This is the first time a U.S. official has given an opinion in public about bin Laden's status. Most officials until now have remained neutral on the question or leaned toward the assumption that the al-Qaida leader was still alive.

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Watson expressed his opinion just days after Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of the London-based Al Quds Al Arabi newspaper, announced that sources close to bin Laden said the suspected terrorist mastermind has recovered from a shrapnel wound he received during the U.S. bombing campaign in Afghanistan last year and is still alive and well. Atwan also explained why no videos featuring bin Laden have been released to the media in many months, saying that he would not appear in one until after al-Qaida carries out another attack on the United States.

The remarks by Watson and Atwan are just the latest in a series of conflicting reports about bin Laden's status and his whereabouts. While his death could have some impact on al-Qaida's organizational and operational abilities, neither side asserts it would be a decisive blow against the group. Rather, both Washington and al-Qaida are exploiting the ambiguity about bin Laden's status to feed into psychological warfare campaigns to stir doubt and confusion in each other.

Shortly after Sept. 11, U.S. President George W. Bush declared bin Laden a man wanted "dead or alive." In part this was to give Americans a rallying point, following a tradition of personifying foreign enemies to maintain domestic fervor for the war. Bin Laden thus joined Hitler, Tojo and Saddam Hussein in a long list of U.S. villains.

But unlike the nation-states Washington formerly engaged in combat, al-Qaida has no geographical boundaries, and the military quickly realized the war against terrorism would need to be fought long after bin Laden's death. This is why the Pentagon, and later the White House, began changing their tune on bin Laden, emphasizing that he was just one man in an international organization and his life or death would have little effect on the overall problem.

Al-Qaida quickly grasped the strategic benefit of leaving bin Laden's status in question. First, despite Washington's concerns about focusing too much on a single person, it used the fear of bin Laden as a lever in domestic and international politics. For al-Qaida, this meant there was little need to expose bin Laden were he alive. At the same time, if indeed he were dead or simply incapacitated, an occasional fabricated "statement" from bin Laden, coupled with Washington's insistence that there was no evidence he was dead, would suffice to keep his followers and sympathizers satisfied and energized.

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Yet as Washington started paying less heed to bin Laden, and repeated terrorist warnings failed to produce another attack, al-Qaida decided it was time to reassure supporters that he was still alive. On June 22, Sulaiman Abu Ghaith – an alleged associate of bin Laden – said in comments broadcast in Arab media that not only was bin Laden alive, but 98 percent of the al-Qaida leadership remained intact. He also claimed an April attack on a synagogue in Tunisia was an al-Qaida action.

This message was meant to show al-Qaida supporters that Washington was a paper tiger, incapable of killing one man despite its military might. Right after Abu Ghaith's statement, Time magazine noted that Bush said he wanted bin Laden "erased" by the Sept. 11, 2002, anniversary of the attacks, and word came of a new U.S. military campaign to get him. At the same time, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld reiterated that bin Laden's death would not end the war against terrorism.

Atwan's July 16 comments have revived the propaganda war. By saying bin Laden wouldn't appear on video until after a new attack, al-Qaida was in effect prodding its followers to strike at the United States if they want to see him alive again. Washington's response was the statement by Watson suggesting bin Laden is in fact dead. This puts the onus of proof back on al-Qaida, because if they refuse to show bin Laden, it could lend credence to Watson's story and begin to spread doubt among al-Qaida supporters.

The Pentagon quickly denied it has any new information on bin Laden's status, but even if the Bush administration has proof he is dead, it has several reasons to hold on to that information. From a cynical political view, waiting until closer to the November elections to reveal such a victory could prove a boon to the Republicans.

From a more pragmatic standpoint, Washington may not be entirely confident in its information, and a premature announcement that the U.S. military killed him, only to have bin Laden show up again, would be devastating for the administration's image and for relations with other countries. A third consideration could be that the United States may have found out whether bin Laden is alive or dead after penetrating the al-Qaida network, but revealing the truth may jeopardize its sources of information.

By continuing to play the psychological warfare game with al-Qaida, Washington hopes to avoid the potential pitfalls of an incorrect or premature revelation of bin Laden's status. At the same time, the United States can try to rattle the network, as it has apparently already done by forcing al-Qaida to say once again that bin Laden is alive and well. If he is alive, perhaps he will be forced to pop up his head to reassure his supporters, giving the U.S. military a clean shot.

By stirring doubt in al-Qaida, the U.S. administration can also try to trigger a power struggle in the group. Al-Qaida has relied on bin Laden's Saudi contacts for funding but on its Egyptian operatives for planning and logistics. If he is dead, or even if one faction of the group thinks he is dead, it could start a split in the group or at least disrupt its operations.

Ultimately, whether bin Laden is dead or alive may not be the most important question. What matters is how both sides are playing the propaganda game, adding another layer of psychological warfare to the already hazy battleground of the global war against terrorism.

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