No nukes in Iraq – what then?

By Gordon Prather

Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the warhawks have been hell-bent on establishing a New World Order. The first manifestation of this New World Order was to have been an invasion of Iraq to punish Saddam Hussein for less-than-perfect compliance with various United Nations Security Council Gulf War resolutions.

In Operation Desert Fox, President Clinton tried to punish – perhaps even kill – Saddam, citing UNSC Resolution 687 as his authority. UNSCR-687 provided no such authority. Furthermore, UNSC members Russia, France and the Peoples Republic of China argued that Saddam was already in substantial compliance with existing U.N. resolutions. So the bombing of Iraq should cease and U.N. sanctions should be lifted.

Clinton threatened to veto the lifting of sanctions. Instead, he sought a self-enforcing resolution. Russia threatened to veto that.

The result was UNSC Resolution 1284, which had no self-enforcing provision. It did partially lift the sanctions and established the Monitoring, Inspection and Verification regime (MOVIC).

Now it is President Bush who is seeking a UNSC resolution authorizing the use of force against Saddam for noncompliance.

President Bush will have to present convincing evidence that Saddam now has – or soon will have – nukes, and that he intends to use them against us. No more of this “weapons of mass destruction” nonsense. All the polls say it has got to be hard, convincing, evidence that Saddam Hussein actually has nukes and intends to use them.

Both President Bush and Prime Minister Blair have claimed to have such evidence. However, their intelligence agencies won’t let them tell us poor slobs what that convincing top-secret evidence is.

How about congressional and parliamentary leaders? Surely the U.S. and Brit intelligence agencies will allow the representatives of the people to be told?

Well, key Brit cabinet members and congressional leaders have recently been told. “What?” they exclaimed. “Is this all you’ve got?”

Even worse, when some of this top-secret evidence was leaked to the media elite, much of it was promptly discredited. For example, our pooh-bahs were told that the International Atomic Energy Agency – part of the MOVIC regime – had studied spy-satellite images of the Kuwaitha site and had concluded that the Iraqis were attempting to reconstruct their capability to produce weapons-grade nuke material. Within hours of that “leaked” report in the New York Times, the IAEA issued an unprecedented official denial.

According to U.N. spokesman Mark Gwozdecky, the IAEA routinely reviews commercial satellite imagery and, from time to time, does notice construction at sites it has previously inspected. Gwozdecky said this new construction in Iraq was no surprise and that “no conclusions had been drawn.”

It’s true that, since 1998, the IAEA has not had the right to go anywhere and see anything it wants to see in Iraq. However, IAEA inspectors were in Iraq in 2000, 2001 and 2002. They inspected all the “declared” nuke-related sites in Iraq – including Kuwaitha – and they found nothing untoward. If there had been something weird at Kuwaitha the IAEA inspectors were curious about, all they had to do was ask, and the Iraqis would have probably allowed them to see it.

Even back in 1998, when U.N. chem-bio inspectors were complaining about less-than-perfect cooperation by the Iraqis, the IAEA inspectors were not complaining. They believed they had – with full Iraqi cooperation – found and completely destroyed the entire Iraqi nuclear infrastructure.

At that time, Hans Blix was IAEA director general. He is now MOVIC chairman and is on record as believing that once MOVIC is allowed into Iraq, compliance with UNSCR-1284 on nukes can be speedily verified. On the other hand, chem-bio might take years.

So what’s next? President Bush may make his case to the U.N. that Saddam has nukes and intends to use them against us. That isn’t going to be easy to do, since almost no one who knows anything about nukes thinks Saddam does have indigenous nukes. But, suppose Russia, France and China agree to a new resolution requiring Saddam to give total unfettered access to the IAEA nuke inspectors – or else. That is, keep chem-bio inspections separate and distinct from IAEA nuke inspections.

Well, Saddam will probably allow the IAEA in and within about a month’s time, we’ll know the answer. If Saddam has indigenous nukes, then the warhawks can string Saddam up by his nubbies.

But, what if Saddam doesn’t have nukes? What, then?

Well, half a million American soldiers and sailors can be home for Christmas.