Iraq concession scatters coalition

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Iraq's acceptance of United Nations inspectors has temporarily scattered the United States' reluctant coalition against Iraq, just as the U.S. military stepped up its air campaign, reports Stratfor, the global intelligence company.

Washington likely will spend the next few weeks attempting to reassemble key elements of the coalition to facilitate ongoing preparations for war. In the process, it may make some concessions on issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Chechnya.

After months of diplomatic efforts, culminating in U.S. President George W. Bush's Sept. 12 speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Washington appeared to have pulled together a coalition for military action against Iraq. Although Washington clearly remains committed to an attack on Iraq, Baghdad's announcement yesterday that it would submit to unconditional U.N. inspections caused some of the United States' reluctant allies to breathe a sigh of relief. This will force Washington into a new round of debate, arm-twisting and bribery as it struggles to keep its coalition in line.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov praised multinational efforts for averting war and facilitating a political settlement in Iraq, and he rejected U.S. calls for a new U.N. resolution to establish a timetable for Iraqi compliance. China, France and Germany welcomed the Iraqi offer and gave credit to multinational efforts to bring about a peaceful solution. Germany, Belgium and New Zealand offered to send inspectors to Iraq.

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa praised the Iraqi decision, as did Syria, Jordan and Oman – all countries from whom the United States needs either active support or restraint in the event of a war. Longtime Iraqi foe Iran split the difference, welcoming Baghdad's offer as a means of ensuring both Iraq and the United States behave within the framework of U.N. resolutions.

Divergence between the United States' plans and its allies' hopes is highlighted by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's announcement yesterday that the war has begun. In a press conference with the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Gen. Peter Pace, Rumsfeld said that U.S. pilots were now altering their target selection when responding to provocations by Iraqi air defense. Instead of hitting mobile radar sites, the U.S. aircraft are now retaliating against fixed air defense command and control structures. This is, in effect, the first phase of a campaign to suppress enemy air defenses, which in turn is the expected first phase of an air war on Iraq.

Washington remains confident that Iraq ultimately cannot and will not accede to the demands it has laid out and is moving ahead with preparations for war. It fully expects Iraq eventually to prove the U.S. argument is right. In fact, Washington might just welcome the Iraqi offer, as one more round of hemming and hawing from Baghdad could strengthen the coalition for war – and give the United States time to complete its military buildup.

But in the interim, as inspectors mill about and negotiate their hotel and helicopter accommodations, Washington needs to retain the support of key regional allies in order to continue the military buildup on schedule. Negotiations between the United States and key allies over the next few weeks will be much more intense than those between the United Nations and Iraq. And as there will need to be carrots among the sticks, the coming weeks could see token progress on issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Russia's war in Chechnya.

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