Iraq war to shake up other Arab governments

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Political opponents of many Middle Eastern governments may try to exploit the upcoming U.S. war with Iraq in an effort to challenge the current ruling regimes, reports Stratfor, the global intelligence company.

Many governments in the region already are dealing with hostile opposition ranging from Islamists to wealthy elites who will jump eagerly on the issue of cooperation with Washington. Many competing factions in the region are just waiting for a chance to turn the tables. As the United States ramps up for the war, key players in the region will begin to position themselves to take advantage of the coming instability.

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The region's shifting political sands will make it that much more difficult for the United States to retain strong support from many Arab allies. As governments in the Middle East try to fend off challenges to their legitimacy, they will have less room to maneuver and therefore will be less able to back the U.S. war effort. Although this may not seriously hinder its military operations, it could complicate Washington's political strategy.

A case in point is Jordan. The ruling monarchy has allied itself closely with the United States and relies heavily on its economic ties with Washington as a source of financial stability. Although both Amman and Washington deny it, there is a good chance U.S. military forces will be based in the tiny kingdom .

But allowing U.S. military forces to use Jordan as a base of operations could create a serious political crisis for the monarchy. Amman backed Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War, and Baghdad rewarded the country by providing it with oil currently totaling 102,000 barrels per day, half of which is free. Hussein also enjoys broad support among Palestinians – due to his opposition to both Israel and the United States.

Should Jordan provide assistance to the U.S. military during its war with Iraq, opposition groups in the kingdom, including Palestinian and Islamist parties like the Islamic Action Front, likely would attack the government much more openly.

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IAF Secretary-General Hamza Mansour already has warned, "If the government succumbs to the U.S. and accepts U.S. troops here, it is letting down the Arab people as a whole, and it is going to find strong opposition from the people," London-based daily the Guardian reported July 13. "If this is a decision taken by the Jordanian government it will be very dangerous, and no one can predict what the outcome will be. Such an immoral decision will definitely stir strong reactions."

Jordan may be an extreme example, but it is representative to some degree of most Middle Eastern states. In Iran, the ongoing fight between reformists and conservative hard-liners in the ruling clerical regime easily could erupt again. Iran's proximity to an Iraqi war will force the government in Tehran to make difficult decisions, such as whether to provide any logistical or other types of support to a besieged Baghdad.

The reformists and conservatives may take opposite positions, and both would challenge the other's stance on political and religious grounds in hopes of gaining an advantage in the ongoing power struggle.

A similar fight may occur in Egypt, where the outlawed opposition Muslim Brotherhood group and hard-line Islamist segments of society will severely pressure the presidency to justify its support for a U.S. war against Iraq while the Palestinian intifada continues unabated.

In Saudi Arabia, a largely underground opposition comprised of radical militants, Islamist leaders and wealthy elites may use Riyadh's cooperation with Washington – with Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal recently announcing that the kingdom would back a U.N.-sanctioned war against Iraq – as a platform for more openly challenging the royal family. Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden repeatedly has condemned the House of Saud for allowing U.S. military forces to use Saudi territory.

Even countries not directly touched by war in Iraq may suffer consequences from the conflict. In Yemen, the growing presence of U.S. military forces and the close cooperation between Sana'a and Washington is creating friction between the government and powerful tribes, with the influential Hashid clan already warning of an impending fracture with the government. Such a break in the ruling coalition would be especially damaging to the central government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, as it controls only a narrow portion of the country centered largely near the capital.

Syria also will suffer a period of political instability when the shooting starts next door. Since succeeding his late father in 2000, President Bashar al-Assad seemingly has solidified his hold on power and neutralized potential threats. But his efforts to reform and open up the country's economy have created controversy, and ongoing problems with rivals in Lebanon and the stalemate in relations with neighbor Israel remain.

Even the tiny Gulf city-states are vulnerable. Sunni-ruled Bahrain is in the midst of a power struggle with the Shia majority and already has experienced widespread anti-American protests. Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are more politically secure but still face Islamist threats.

From Washington's viewpoint, it has given the governments in all its Middle Eastern ally states plenty of warning. As evidenced by the recent crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt – in which 18 members and a leader were arrested last week – and the arrests of alleged al-Qaida members in Saudi Arabia, these governments are making pre-emptive strikes against potential challengers.

The vast number of potential rivals for power, and their variety, – from political opponents to radical Islamists to wealthy elites – in all of these key states makes it nearly impossible for any of the regimes involved to completely dismantle the opposition. This makes regime change a distinct, though at this point uncertain, possibility in any of the Middle Eastern governments upon which Washington relies.

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