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The timing of any attack on Iraq will rely not only on a new U.N. Security Council resolution, but also on the availability of U.S. and allied aircraft carriers, reports Stratfor, the global intelligence company.
Bush administration officials are pressing the case for a new United Nations Security Council resolution against Iraq, meeting with fellow Security Council members China, France and Russia. But as Washington pushes for a new resolution that would allow for military strikes, Pentagon officials are looking at the availability of equipment, troops – including Marine expeditionary units, or MEUs – and aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf region.
During Operation Desert Storm, the United States deployed as many as six aircraft carriers in the region simultaneously: the USS Saratoga (CV 60), the USS John F. Kennedy (CV 67), the USS Midway (CV 41), the USS Ranger (CV 61), the USS America (CV 66) and the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71). Of these, only the Roosevelt and the Kennedy are still in service. Most of the others were smaller than today’s carriers, and improvements in aircraft and munitions mean the military can muster equal firepower with fewer carriers on station.
The U.S. Navy currently maintains a fleet of 12 aircraft carriers – six based on the Atlantic coast, five on the Pacific coast and one forward deployed in Japan. Two carriers now are within striking range of Iraq: the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) and the USS George Washington (CVN 73). The Washington, which arrived in the northern Arabian Sea in July, handed over duties to the Lincoln on the symbolic Sept. 11 anniversary. The Lincoln is the first U.S. carrier deployed with the new F/A-18 Super Hornets on board.
Any major attack on Iraq likely would involve more than two U.S. aircraft carriers, and the next one due on station – the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) – is set to arrive in November to relieve the Washington, which is nearing the end of its deployment. This puts one of the earliest possible moments for a major strike on Iraq in mid- to late November, when for a brief time three carriers will be regularly scheduled to be in the region.
But as in operations Desert Storm and Desert Fox, when additional carriers were brought into play, one must look at the entire carrier fleet to determine how many ships will be available and when. In general, a U.S. aircraft carrier spends six months on deployment, followed by a six-month maintenance period and another half-year or more for training. Many of the carriers deployed for operations against Afghanistan are still in this maintenance-and-recovery cycle.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) returned to its homeport of Norfolk, Va., in late March and will not be ready for deployment again until late spring 2003. The Kennedy, which took part in Desert Storm, returned to Mayport, Fla., in August and will not be ready to deploy again for some time. Its deployment earlier this year was marred by problems that led to the removal of its captain. The other two Atlantic-based carriers – the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) and the USS Enterprise (CVN 65) – are undergoing extensive overhauls and will not be ready for deployment anytime soon.
Vessels in the Pacific are closer to being ready for action in the Gulf. The USS Constellation (CV 64) is scheduled to head to the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea in December on what may be its last voyage before decommissioning. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) finished its six-month maintenance and upgrade period in September, a month ahead of schedule, but months of training still are required before it will be ready to deploy in early 2003.
The USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74), which returned to San Diego, Calif., in late May, also will be ready for early 2003. And the USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) – the only U.S. forward-deployed aircraft carrier, based in Yokosuka, Japan – also may be ready by then or even earlier. The remaining active U.S. carrier, the USS Nimitz (CVN 68), still is undergoing a yearlong maintenance and communications upgrade scheduled for completion in December.
In addition to U.S. carriers, the British HMS Ark Royal (RO7) reportedly is ready to deploy to the region soon – though the two other British carriers, the HMS Invincible (RO5) and the HMS Illustrious (RO6) are undergoing maintenance, as is the French Charles de Gaulle (R91).
In addition to naval-based aircraft, Washington also will consider the availability of its MEUs – rapid reaction forces that will be deployed early in any invasion of Iraq.
Of the seven U.S. MEUs, the 11th MEU is already in the region, having taken part in exercises in Kuwait. The 13th and 15th MEUs are both at home in Camp Pendleton, Calif.: the 13th having recently completed a seven-month deployment in the Arabian Sea and the 15th getting ready for its next deployment.
One other MEU, the 24th, currently is participating in Operation Dynamic Response in Kosovo. The 22nd recently returned from an overseas deployment, and the 26th just completed urban combat training. All three MEUs are based at Camp Lejeune, N.C. The final MEU, the 31st, currently is training at its base in Okinawa.
For U.S. strategists planning an attack on Iraq, this means that as many as three MEUs, in addition to the 11th, could be active in the Arabian Sea within the next three months. Meanwhile, the Navy can have three carriers in the region in November, or four in December, in preparation for an early strike.
While this does not guarantee military action before year-end, it does make action any earlier unlikely for purely logistical reasons – even if political backing could be rallied sooner.
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WND Staff