Nuclear axis of evil

When it comes to prosecuting the war against terrorism, we’re having trouble getting members of the United Nations Security Council – particularly Russia – to see things our way, all along the “nuclear axis of evil.”

First, there’s Iraq.

The Security Council imposed sanctions on Iraq back in 1991 largely because the Iraqi clandestine uranium-enrichment program – discovered by U.N. inspectors – constituted a material breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, since 1998, when the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that Iraq was in substantial compliance with the NPT and that a verifiable full-scope Safeguards Agreement was in place, most Security Council members, particularly Russia, have wanted to lift the sanctions.

But we vetoed the lifting of sanctions – irrespective of Iraqi NPT compliance – so long as Saddam Hussein was in power.

Now that we have forcibly removed Saddam from power, we have asked the Security Council to lift the sanctions.

However, since sanctions were originally imposed largely because of NPT noncompliance, Security Council members will probably refuse to lift them until the IAEA has re-entered Iraq and re-established a verifiable full-scope Safeguards regime. That may take many months, since there are reports that the sites formerly secured by the IAEA regime were pillaged during Operation Iraqi Freedom and that formerly safeguarded radiological materials have been stolen, perhaps by terrorists.

Next, there’s Iran.

According to U.S. State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher, the United States has “reached the conclusion that Iran is actively working to develop a nuclear-weapons capability.” Boucher cited the nuclear power plants currently under construction at Bushehr, as well as a heavy-water plant at Arak and a uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz, arguing that they couldn’t possibly be for peaceful purposes since, “there is no economic gain for a state that’s rich in oil and gas like Iran to build costly nuclear fuel-cycle facilities. ”

So, we have demanded that the IAEA declare Iran to be in material breach of the NPT and intend to ask the Security Council to impose the same sort of sanctions on Iran as were imposed on Iraq.

President Mohammad Khatami immediately rejected U.S. allegations that Iran is developing a nuclear-weapons capability. Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said Iran does not intend to build nuclear weapons and that all its efforts in the nuclear-energy sphere have peaceful objectives.

Boucher to the contrary, nuclear power could make economic sense in Iran. Iran reportedly uses about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to generate electricity for domestic consumption. That’s almost as much oil as Iran currently exports. In other words, Iran could almost double its oil exports if it could shift to nuclear power. Therefore, Iran plans to have at least 6,000 megawatts of installed nuclear-generating capacity within 20 years.

In any case, Golam-Reza Aqazadeh, the director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said that it was up to the IAEA to decide whether Iran’s activities were in compliance with the NPT, not the U.S. At Aqazadeh’s invitation, Director General Mohamed ElBaradei and a team of IAEA inspectors visited the facilities at Natanz and Arak earlier this year.

Afterwards, ElBaradei held a press conference wherein he acknowledged Iran’s continuing cooperation with the IAEA and confirmed the consistency of Iran’s nuclear projects with its status as a non-nuke NPT signatory. Furthermore, ElBaradei stressed that, under the NPT, the “application of nuclear energy for civilian purposes is the right of every nation.”

ElBaradei stated that he had not observed anything “unexpected” during his inspection. He also praised Iran’s “transparency” policy. Iran had not been obligated under the NPT to admit the IAEA to the “undeclared” sites at Natanz and Arak.

But there were rumors that ElBaradei was surprised – and a little alarmed – at the scale and sophistication of the Iranian uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz. Hence, he urged Iran, as he has urged all NPT signatories, to negotiate and sign an Additional Protocol to the NPT, allowing unlimited and surprise inspections by the IAEA at any suspect sites.

ElBaradei has reportedly shared his concerns with Security Council members. Subsequently, both Russia and France have also urged Iran to sign an Additional Protocol to the NPT. But, to the dismay of the US, ElBaradei is expected to report at the June meeting of the IAEA board of governors that Iran has committed only minor violations of the NPT.

Finally, there’s North Korea.

Now, there’s a real nuke crisis. But don’t expect the Security Council to see things our way. We’ve already cried wolf too many times.