Is Prechter claiming that in the middle of a bull market peak, social unrest begins and drives the market down? Everybody is living high, and they begin to riot and use their treadmills as coat-racks? If these events are most prevalent at peaks (indicating an ensuing reversal) then a) Prechter is merely noting trends, not predicting the market, and b) if he is predicting the market, then the height of social unrest and apathy would mean we are headed for a economic upturn!
– Alex
You're still caught up in event causality. Turn it around. According to the socionomic theory, it is the social mood reversing from its positive peak, as indicated by the market, which will ultimately cause social unrest. Your point b) is correct. When social unrest hits its peak, that is the sign that economic upturn is on its way, just as the current euphoria that pervaded the stock market and the world in 2000 was actually a very negative sign going forward. The challenge is that peaks of both sorts are notoriously difficult to identify.
Vox, why don't you just admit your issues and stop hiding behind one study. You notice women don't need studies to tell you all about men? That's because with some of men's outrageous behavior, experience will always serve women better.
– Jill
I always enjoy how quickly some women will dive into pop psychology and anti-intellectual positions the minute a fact contradicts their feelings. This is a nice example of the nonlinear Fifth Stage in action. Talk about reverse causality! Yes, it's one study. That's because it's the first one. It's also why I qualified my statements and suggested more studies were needed. Forget the fake lie detector, just shoot the subjects up with Pentathol next time and use the real machines.
You don't know much about women. Well, I will tell you something. … Men lie about love. Women lie on sex surveys. This is the "it's none of your business" syndrome. Rape accusation makes it everyone's business – the media, the state, your friends, your family. It is scrutiny women shy from. Any mention of sex in conjunction with a woman, even of non-sex, gains unwanted hostile attention. Women are taught that their sex life is supposed to be private.
– RT
I don't see how saying that women lie on sex surveys disproves my point that women lie about sex. And I agree, men do lie about love, the important difference is that women seldom get thrown in jail because men are lying about love. Given the choice between a broken heart and four years sharing precious moments with Bubba, I'll take the broken heart, thanks.
As high-tech bails out of the U.S. for a capitalist utopia of cheap labor in India, is it wise and safe to invest? Will India's masses be politically and culturally stable enough to support American capitalism in the long term or are the lefties in tech corporate circles lying to themselves about the superiority of third world governments, culture and people over "racist America"? I am not putting my money into left-wingers who are fleeing the reality of their dirty nest in the U.S. in the hope of finding a Third Way utopia in India.
– Jo
Since 71 percent of the surprise 2.4 percent jump in preliminary Q2 GDP last week was increased defense spending, I remain skeptical of the recovery line - especially since that 2.4 will likely be revised down, to 1.9 percent if it follows the example of the last quarter's corrections. I don't see any tech recovery, and the point about business fleeing to countries not handicapped by huge regulatory and tax burdens, which are certainly leftist in origin, is an apt one. The permabulls are trying to convince everyone that the rise in interest rates is a good sign, but of course, this directly contradicts everything they've been saying for the last four months. If mortgage rates are going up, this bear market rally is, as they say, an ex-rally.
Is it possible that the Elliott Wave has been skewed because of the manipulation of the Fed, profit taking, and the daffy duck reactions by the news media?
– Delese
Mr. Prechter considers that Fed actions are fully accounted for by the mood-driven waves, and while this makes theoretical sense in the grand scheme of things, intelligent and timely manipulation would certainly help account for some of the difficulties shown in the short-term Elliott Wave analyses. I've seen five of my non-wave trading signals broken in this rally, and there also appear to be a mysterious rash of timely trading mishaps as well. I have no doubt that the Market Stabilization force has been working overtime in July, and I have no doubt that they will ultimately fail. The only question is when.
I hope you go far, but don't sell out!
– Charles
I know if we do, we get the hell out.
If I were called to serve on a jury and had to swear to uphold and abide the law as written … what could I do in such a situation if I firmly believe in jury nullification?
– Michael
You can uphold and abide the law and still decide not to apply it in your particular case. That's not only logically consistent, it is your right and duty as a juror, according to the Supreme Court.