Taiwan sub deal
delayed a decade?

Despite a Bush administration pledge to sell Taiwan eight modern diesel-electric submarines to upgrade its woefully inadequate undersea fleet, it may be another decade before the first one is ever delivered, according to a Taiwanese navy official

One of two subs in the Taiwan Navy's outdated fleet

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The delay is likely to put Taiwan at a further military disadvantage against mainland China, which has steadily improved and increased its already substantially larger submarine force.

Earlier reports suggested Taiwan would receive its first new submarine by 2010 – still a long wait but years ahead of the most recent estimate.

Also, a Taiwanese navy source told the Taipei Times, the sub deal is expected to cost much more than originally thought, and perhaps as much as double initial estimates. The higher cost leaves Taipei's military chiefs wondering where they will find money to upgrade the rest of the island democracy's aging military force.

The Times reported Thursday a senior navy official, who was not named, said it will be 2013 before the first of eight promised submarines is delivered. The official also said the cost may double from about $5.8 billion to $11.7 billion. The cost could even climb to as much as $14.6 billion or higher, the official said, depending upon the size of the submarines.

The higher estimates "show that the military will need much more money than the estimated special budget of NT$520 billion (about US$15 billion) for the purchase of new weapon systems in the next 10 years," the Times reported.

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Problems working out the details of the deal could be a major reason why timetables and costs have increased. U.S. and Taiwanese officials will meet on the island later this year to discuss the type and size submarines American officials can procure to sell. However the Times quoted the senior navy official as saying the deal so far had experienced rough waters.

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"We do not know what type of submarine the U.S. would offer us," the official said. "We have to admit that the process is not progressing smoothly."

The official said the Taiwan navy could use smaller submarines, between 1,500 and 2,000 tons displaced. Such subs would hold a crew of 40. But, the paper reported, the navy official said it wasn't likely Taiwan would consider smaller vessels.

"The timetable makes sense only on condition that the U.S. finalizes its selection of submarines by the end of the year," the senior official told the Times. "After the type of submarine has been selected, we will spend four years on pre-construction preparation work and six years on construction."

Currently Taiwan operates four submarines. The two most modern subs are diesel-electric boats built by the Dutch and commissioned in 1988-89. The others are World War II-era U.S.-built Guppy class boats. Upgraded in the 1960s, the Guppies could dive to 415 feet. Since then, they have deteriorated to the point where they reportedly cannot dive past 200 feet.

Last year the White House told WorldNetDaily the Taiwan sub deal was on schedule. Calls to the White House for an update for this story, however, were not returned.

As WorldNetDaily reported, analysts had estimated the cost of the submarines likely would climb.

Tamar Gabelnick, director of arm sales monitoring for the Federation of American Scientists, or FAS, said last summer U.S. and Taiwanese officials had not yet worked out the details of the deal. And, she cautioned, there were "questions as to whether Taiwan could still afford them."

Since the United States has not built or fielded a diesel-electric sub in decades, Bush administration officials had begun a feasibility study to see if the vessels could be built domestically.

"There were upfront costs incurred [to the U.S.] just to see if it would be feasible to build the subs here," Gabelnick told WorldNetDaily.

She said officials were projecting "even steeper costs" to build the subs, but she didn't have specific figures.

The administration said when it announced plans to sell Taiwan the subs they could cost around $500 million each, or about $4 billion for the package.

The delay in procuring submarines will no doubt put Taiwan further behind mainland China in terms of undersea naval power.

FAS experts say China's newest subs, the Type 093, are a part of Beijing's modern nuclear forces. The boats are capable of submerged launching of anti-ship cruise missiles, as well as nuclear ICBMs.

Also, China is preparing to build the Type 94, expected to be a major improvement over earlier Chinese submarine models.

So numerically superior to Taiwan's sub fleet are the Chinese navy's own undersea assets that Jane's Fighting Ships reported in May 2001 that Beijing may employ a sub-based blockade of the island, should fighting erupt.

Quoting former United Kingdom Royal Navy Commodore Stephen Saunders, Jane's said China has ample numbers of subs to do the job.

"The familiar environment of the South China Sea and low transit times to bases are also strong factors in favor of a submarine campaign, perhaps in conjunction with mining, as a preferred option if military force is to be deployed," Saunders noted.

Taiwan's leaders have expressed concern about the mainland's rapid modernization of its own navy. In February, President Chen Shui-bian pledged Taiwan's navy "will emerge as a brand-new force" in a bid to counterbalance China's power.

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