Based on audio and video tapes of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden recently broadcast, U.S. intelligence analysts think the terrorist fugitive likely is ill, injured or dead.
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According to a Knight-Ridder report, the Bush administration officials say the videotape could have been made up to two years ago and that an audio track of bin Laden was recorded separately and overlaid onto the video. The latest footage shows the al-Qaida chief hiking in mountains.
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A tape recording of bin Laden's top lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahri, however, likely was made more recently, the report said. An official requesting anonymity said the two audio tapes were recorded separately, speculating the two terrorist leaders no longer are together.
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Other information, the news service quotes the officials as saying, leads them to believe bin Laden is ailing and al-Zawahri likely is preparing to take over the al-Qaida helm.
"I think there's a pretty broad consensus that bin Laden's probably alive but not well," one senior official told Knight-Ridder.
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Other analysts speculate bin Laden may not have recorded a tape recently because he's fearful for his safety. Bombs can be hidden in video and recording equipment.
Discussing the possibility al-Zawahri is preparing to take control of al-Qaida, one analyst said he "probably wouldn't be stepping up if bin Laden weren't down," the new service reported. Al-Zawahri is an Egyptian doctor who became bin Laden's top aide when his Egyptian Islamic Jihad joined forces with al-Qaida.
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The intelligence community has speculated for months that bin Laden is likely ill, some believing kidney problems require him to be on dialysis.
WorldNetDaily reported in October an intelligence source believed bin Laden was "likely dead."
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"He's been on the run for a while, and it would be hard to imagine that he's had the luxury to move the (dialysis) machine, stop for hours on end to use it and evade U.S. forces," the source told WorldNetDaily. "On top of that, just the logistical requirements for the maintenance and operation of the machines would make it difficult to keep things running. "
According to the Knight-Ridder report, the last confirmed contact with bin Laden occurred just before the battle in Tora Bora, Afghanistan, in December 2001, when he was heard on the radio exhorting his fighters.
As WorldNetDaily reported, there were reports bin Laden paid $15 million to facilitate his escape to Pakistan just before the Tora Bora battle began.
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