I think Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had a point with his recent leaked memo. Based on the questions he raised – for example, he asked if we are really winning the war on terrorism – and based on his admission that U.S. involvements in Iraq and Afghanistan were not only going slow but going to occupy this country for a very long time, you would think that he’s one of the Democratic Party candidates for president.
That’s because his questions and observations are the same ones that critics of the war have been concerned about since before Baghdad fell. Out of the mouth of babes and secretaries of defense!
Another way of asking the same questions that Rumsfeld raised is to wonder what our terrorist enemies might be up to next. With Osama, Mullah Omar and Saddam still on the lam – and still making plans (just watch their videos or listen to their tapes) – it might be useful to put yourself in their shoes and ask what steps you would be likely to take against the United States or George W. Bush, depending on how you defined your enemy.
And in the Middle East, hatred is a very personal game, as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict demonstrates. Remember Hammurabi’s Law, (so named after the ruler of Babylon from 1792 to 1750 B.C.)? An eye for an eye, a war for a war, and so on. We’ve had two wars since 9-11, and no direct retaliation against the U.S. homeland. So by George W’s count, it’s U.S.- 2, Evildoers-Zippo. The rest of us are now waiting for the other shoe to drop.
A look at the history of radical Islamists dropping shoes is not encouraging. After the Iranian hostage crisis, then-President Jimmy Carter tried negotiation, tried military intervention … and then tried to get elected to a second term – and failed. One big reason was the Ayatollah Khomeini turned out to be as careful a student of U.S. elections as George Gallup.
As the presidential election of 1980 grew closer, he knew that to release the American hostages before Election Tuesday would be to single-handedly return Jimmy Carter to the White House. Especially after the botched rescue attempt, his hatred of Carter burned white hot, and the Ayatollah did the only thing he could do to get even – do nothing.
That year, the American electorate was, like it is today, concerned with national security issues. By doing nothing regarding the release of hostages, one aging, radical cleric in Tehran assured the election of Ronald Reagan as president. It may not have been the most rational response but, since when have we picked our leaders in a rational manner?
That brings me to the dreaded prospects for 2004. My fear – and I hope and pray that I’ve never been more wrong about anything in my life – is that al-Qaida may attempt its own November Surprise: A massive terrorist attack intended to demonstrate that President Bush’s War on Terror really isn’t working … the hope being that he’ll lose the election.
If al-Qaida’s proven anything, it’s that fanaticism can be planned quite rationally. According to intelligence experts, al-Qaida is deliberate, careful and patient in planning its major operations. If they do have cells in North America, they won’t be inclined to risk them unless the stakes were large enough. In my opinion, in al-Qaida’s demented imagination, the only stakes big enough to take those risks would be the defeat of George W. Bush for president.
If this is their idea, it’s crazy and probably wouldn’t work – the American people have a tendency to rally around their incumbent leaders in emergencies. But I don’t think Osama’s crew is as sharp a reader of the U.S. electorate as old man Khomeini was. After all, Khomeini actually did turn the election and his crew is still running Iran 24 years later. Osama gave us 9-11 and a few months later we evicted him from Afghanistan, threw out Saddam in Iraq and it’s anybody’s guess where we go from here.
Nonetheless, if I were Osama, I’d be looking to even the score by ousting George W. Bush. As the saying has it, history repeats itself – the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce. That is unless Osama would rather use George W., re-elected president of the United States as the subject of an al-Qaida recruiting poster.
Let’s curb the kangaroo court of anonymous sources
Tim Graham