Kerry surges in AOL straw poll

By Joe Kovacs

Sen. John Kerry

In the wake of WorldNetDaily’s story yesterday which showed a 48-state victory for President Bush in an America Online straw poll, Democrat John Kerry has experienced a surge, jumping from just 13 electoral votes to 111, while Bush’s electoral total has dropped from 525 to 427.

The Massachusetts senator has finally reached the point of taking his home state in the unscientific survey, but more significantly, he’s now ahead in the prized states of California and New York, whose combined total of electoral votes is 86.

As of 4 p.m. Eastern time today, with some 47,000 participants, Kerry held a close 2-percentage-point lead in the Golden State, while jumping ahead of Bush in the Empire State 51-47 percent. In Massachusetts, Kerry leads Bush by just 31 votes. In these three states, Ralph Nader collects 2 percent of the voting among AOL members, but only 1 percent nationwide.

When WND first posted coverage of the AOL poll yesterday, Kerry was ahead only in Vermont, Connecticut and the District of Columbia, totaling just 13 electoral votes.

AOL is still remaining silent about its poll, but the Internet service provider says on its site that each month, the voting starts over for candidates, and that AOL members are allowed to vote once per month.

Conceivably, someone with more than one screen name could cast more than one ballot, but such a “vote early and vote often” technique is open to people of more than one political persuasion.

WND has received some e-mail since its original story showing Bush leading in 48 states. It includes:

  • “AOL began their original poll the beginning of August, which revealed a landslide for Bush. AOL said that each month the polling would start over and the results archived. Oddly, Bush was winning by a landslide and they reset the poll after a few days! The recent poll numbers pale in comparison to the last poll (300,000 or more). No wonder they won’t return your call!” (Gail Liles, Parker, Colo.)

  • “Please quit publishing news about any poll that indicates Bush will win in a landslide. The Dems are known for their voter fraud and scams. This will just make them do that much more in attempts to change the election results.” (Sybil C. Roberts)

  • “I’ve been watching the AOL straw poll closely, for months, and it went from what was a consistently a majority of blue states, to nearly all red states overnight. I assume that if the hacker(s) continue on with what they’re doing, you’ll very soon see that all 50 states will be red.” (Darren Nero)

  • “The AOL electoral survey is interesting, but ultimately not very accurate, since it excludes Libertarian Michael Badnarik.” (Lex)

  • “Bush landslide! You must be off your rocker!” (Unsigned)

WorldNetDaily polled its own readers yesterday on who they thought would win the election, if the voting were held now.

With more than 7,700 votes, 87 percent Bush would win, with about 56 percent believing it would be in a landslide fashion. Only 3 percent felt Kerry would be victorious.

While AOL’s poll is merely a popularity contest, professional pollsters using scientific methodology have shown a close race between Bush and Kerry.

A Gallup survey following the recent Democratic convention had Bush receiving 50 percent support among likely voters, and Kerry with 47 percent. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry held a 50-47 lead.

According to a poll published Aug. 5 by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry held an electoral lead over Bush of 228-197, with 113 votes listed as toss-ups.

Rasmussen also puts out a daily tracking poll on the presidential contest, and today’s results had Kerry leading the incumbent in the popular vote 48 to 46 percent.

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