John Kerry was on the stump talking down to African-American audiences on Sept. 11, saying he would not tolerate any funny business in the counting of the votes in 2004. His umpteenth blatant appeal to a “scandal” in the 2000 election had as much zip as his punch lines usually do.
If John Kerry believes that this race will be decided in another weeks-on-end extension like the 2000 race was, he had best look at the states he believes he’s winning in order to even be in that position. Right now, Kerry has to play catch-up in three states that Gore took in 2000.
In Pennsylvania, it has been tight all the way across. Former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver and Super Bowl great Lynn Swann is a sunny and optimistic African-American face who has spoken brightly of what re-electing President Bush means to the state. Combine that with the socially conservative outlook of a state that has two Republican U.S. senators – and not long ago elected a pro-life Democrat as governor – it might be easy to understand how President Bush is currently eking out a 3-point lead.
In Wisconsin, the news is even worse for Kerry. Gore only carried the state by a few hundred votes in 2000. And it appears that the cheese-heads regret having not made a different choice. President Bush has now surged to an 8-point lead, with more visits planned in the next 40 days. Kerry doesn’t seem to be picking up steam, and – following the two conventions – Wisconsin appears to be leaning more strongly than ever toward President Bush.
Kerry is spending money in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and was prepared to fight on through the tough months of September and October, but now comes the really bad news for him: New Jersey. Kerry had previously planned on spending no money in “The Garden State.”
To be fair, John Kerry could not have predicted the impact that Gov. Jim McGreevey’s corruption and recklessness would have on his campaign for president. But as the voter’s are finding out that Jim McGreevey and John Kerry have used the same fund-raiser – and as they have tasted more and more corruption in the governor’s “I resign, but not until later because the Dems want to hold on to power” speech from last month – they are deciding that to send the right message, they must vote Republican this time around.
In 2000, Gore won New Jersey by nearly 16 percent. As of this writing – and according to the latest poll of likely voters across the state – President Bush bests beyond the margin of error 49 percent to 45 percent. The internals for the poll are even worse for Kerry. Bush overwhelmingly carries Republicans 92 percent, is higher among African-Americans than he was in 2000, is polling 32 percent of Hispanics, is carrying 12 percent of the Democrats, and 45 percent of the independents. These numbers all are coming from the most densely populated state per capita in the nation, with a total of 15 Electoral College votes up for grabs.
Add to this these facts: In California, Bush has closed the gap to 8 percent. In New York, the two most recent polls show gaps of only 7 percent and 3 percent when factoring the margin of error. And in Illinois, Bush has closed to 4 percent. And these are all states that Gore won running away.
So let Kerry continue to flail away in speeches that dull the senses and make us go blind from boredom – he has much bigger problems on his hands than Florida.
Yet, strangely, it seems he doesn’t realize it. He said last week to Time magazine that he was “unaware” of any Bush bounce. Yet, when the battle for states has shifted from the “battleground states” we have all heard about for months to just trying to save face in states he should be in firm command of – and he can’t recognize it? – I wonder what that says about his ability to assess problems and how aggressively he would work to fix them … like if terrorists attacked.
In fact, forget Florida. There may be some of us who, when all the dust settles in Nov. 3, may be asking – nay, even demanding – election officials to “Recount Massachusetts!”
