What shall we do about Iran?

When President Bush branded Iraq, Iran and North Korea as an “axis of evil,” his critics promptly condemned him for singling out those three nations. Why not (just for one thing) include China, which is far bigger and already has nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them?

And when Bush ordered American forces into Iraq, in the belief (then universally held) that it possessed chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction (and was well on its way to developing nuclear ones as well), the same critics sneered at his choice of a target. North Korea was obviously the more imminent danger, since it already possessed one or two nuclear weapons and was technologically capable of making more. Why not go after North Korea first?

But Bush’s emphasis on Iraq, Iran and North Korea, and his choice of Iraq as the first target, were not accidental. Like every American president for the last 30 years, he was obliged to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons wherever he could. Sometimes diplomatic efforts, backed by economic measures, sufficed. But the three rogue nations he called an axis of evil had proved impervious to such pressures. (So had China, but as a major power it had a different status.) President Clinton had dithered, and ultimately left the problem on his successor’s doorstep. Bush was made of sterner stuff.

So when the events of Sept. 11 focused the American people’s attention on the malignant phenomenon of Muslim terrorism, the president seized the opportunity to disarm the most vulnerable member of the axis of evil. The fact that no stockpiles of WMDs were found is a telling commentary on the intelligence services of the world’s major nations, but it doesn’t invalidate his decision, based on the best information available.

In any event, the axis of evil is now down to two members: Iran and North Korea. The latter must not be ignored, but it is best dealt with in concert with its big neighbors: China, Russia and Japan. But what about Iran?

Iran is, by its own admission, very close to being able to build nuclear weapons (though it denies any such intention). Most figure that it fully intends to build them. After all, its neighbors India, Pakistan and Israel all possess them, and Iran must feel that only nuclear weaponry can give it equal status in the region.

Can the United States afford to allow this to happen? A few years ago, it seemed possible that Iran might undergo internal (democratizing) changes that would make it far less dangerous as a nuclear power. But this hope has receded. Iranian nuclear weapons, if they are allowed to be built, will be in the hands of fanatical Muslim clerics bitterly hostile to the West.

There are few things the American people want just now less than another ground war in the Middle East (even assuming we could raise the army needed to wage it). But the tipping point is almost here: Very soon, perhaps in just a few months, Iran will be a nuclear power. What can Bush be expected to do about this, if he’s re-elected? And what would John Kerry do if he, instead, were to win the election?

It has been suggested that Israel, if encouraged, would be willing to conduct a series of precision air strikes to knock out Iran’s bomb-producing facilities. (It did exactly that to Iraq in 1981.) Iran has warned that, in such a case, its armies will march. But where? It is extremely doubtful that Iran is any match, militarily, for Israel. Might Iranian forces, then, cross the border into American-occupied Iraq? That would surely be even more foolhardy. But we must not rashly assume that Iran would do nothing.

On his performance to date, it is safe to bet that Bush would do whatever he deemed necessary to protect America. As for Kerry, the vast majority of his supporters are bitterly opposed to further military involvement in the Middle East. It is all too easy to picture President Kerry appealing to the United Nations to act, and begging France and Germany to align their policies with his. But at the end of the day, a nuclear-armed Iran would, in all likelihood, join North Korea as a mortal threat to the peace of the world.